Last week the Sacramento Bee reported:
On the Demo side, the names of Assemblywoman Lois Wolk of Davis and UC Merced Vice Chancellor John Garamendi Jr. have been thrown in the pot. On the GOP side, political watchers who know a thing or two about the district have offered up the names of Assemblyman Greg Aghazarian of Stockton and Dean Andal, a former legislator and Board of Equalization member, and a current board trustee of the Lincoln Unified School District in Stockton.
The 5th SD, currently represented by termed-out Dem Mike Machado, covers parts of Sacramento, San Joaquin, Solano and Yolo counties, with about half the voting populace in San Joaquin County. Registration is about 46 percent Dem, 33 percent Reep and 17 percent independent.
If the race holds true to early form, it could be to the 2008 Senate campaigns what the 34th SD was to the 2006 derby, when the race between eventual Dem winner Lou Correa and Reep Lynn Daucher wasn’t decided until two weeks after the election, and the victory margin was less than 1 percent.
In 2004, Democrat Mike Machado won an extremely narrow victory over Stockton Mayor Gary Podesto. This time figures to be an extremely close race. Garamendi, Jr. has lived in Davis in the past and his wife is a faculty member at the UC Davis School of Medicine’s Department of Public Health Sciences. This figures to be a tough fight for the nomination as Wolk is a longtime officeholder in Yolo County first as Davis City Councilmember and Mayor, then as County Supervisor, and since 2002 as Assemblywoman for the 8th Assembly District.
—Doug Paul Davis reporting
For the first time,the Democratic voters of Davis will have a viable choice in a Lois Wolk race since her rather “controversial” performance on our city council…… should be very interesting.
For the first time,the Democratic voters of Davis will have a viable choice in a Lois Wolk race since her rather “controversial” performance on our city council…… should be very interesting.
For the first time,the Democratic voters of Davis will have a viable choice in a Lois Wolk race since her rather “controversial” performance on our city council…… should be very interesting.
For the first time,the Democratic voters of Davis will have a viable choice in a Lois Wolk race since her rather “controversial” performance on our city council…… should be very interesting.
well, i’m not sure that garameni will be to the left of wolk, but the race should be fun nonetheless. contested races are always a good thing.
what could really complicate the whole thing is if term limits get repealed in the early february presidential primary. would machado stay on in the 5th state senate race? would wolk take another go in the 8th assembly seat as an incumbant? madness.
solano county could be insane this time around, with the 5th state senate and 8th assembly races in addition to a possible primary challenge from the left to congresswoman ellen tauscher in CA-10.
well, i’m not sure that garameni will be to the left of wolk, but the race should be fun nonetheless. contested races are always a good thing.
what could really complicate the whole thing is if term limits get repealed in the early february presidential primary. would machado stay on in the 5th state senate race? would wolk take another go in the 8th assembly seat as an incumbant? madness.
solano county could be insane this time around, with the 5th state senate and 8th assembly races in addition to a possible primary challenge from the left to congresswoman ellen tauscher in CA-10.
well, i’m not sure that garameni will be to the left of wolk, but the race should be fun nonetheless. contested races are always a good thing.
what could really complicate the whole thing is if term limits get repealed in the early february presidential primary. would machado stay on in the 5th state senate race? would wolk take another go in the 8th assembly seat as an incumbant? madness.
solano county could be insane this time around, with the 5th state senate and 8th assembly races in addition to a possible primary challenge from the left to congresswoman ellen tauscher in CA-10.
well, i’m not sure that garameni will be to the left of wolk, but the race should be fun nonetheless. contested races are always a good thing.
what could really complicate the whole thing is if term limits get repealed in the early february presidential primary. would machado stay on in the 5th state senate race? would wolk take another go in the 8th assembly seat as an incumbant? madness.
solano county could be insane this time around, with the 5th state senate and 8th assembly races in addition to a possible primary challenge from the left to congresswoman ellen tauscher in CA-10.
Garamendi almost by default will be to the left of Wolk and he won’t be anti-union.
Garamendi almost by default will be to the left of Wolk and he won’t be anti-union.
Garamendi almost by default will be to the left of Wolk and he won’t be anti-union.
Garamendi almost by default will be to the left of Wolk and he won’t be anti-union.
You misread the 5th SD if you think that a liberal Dem can win the general election. John will run as a moderate, business (read Ag) friendly Democrat IF, and only if, the Legislature doesn’t modify current term limits. If legislative terms are extended, Machado and Wolk both run for re-election.
You misread the 5th SD if you think that a liberal Dem can win the general election. John will run as a moderate, business (read Ag) friendly Democrat IF, and only if, the Legislature doesn’t modify current term limits. If legislative terms are extended, Machado and Wolk both run for re-election.
You misread the 5th SD if you think that a liberal Dem can win the general election. John will run as a moderate, business (read Ag) friendly Democrat IF, and only if, the Legislature doesn’t modify current term limits. If legislative terms are extended, Machado and Wolk both run for re-election.
You misread the 5th SD if you think that a liberal Dem can win the general election. John will run as a moderate, business (read Ag) friendly Democrat IF, and only if, the Legislature doesn’t modify current term limits. If legislative terms are extended, Machado and Wolk both run for re-election.
I must agree with anonymous’ diagnosis. Although I don’t really think Junior will run, his trial balloon candidacy is totally driven by disgruntled BIG San Joaquin developers (Grupe, Spanos et al), unhappy with Wolk’s hard line against their sprawling developments in the floodplain. Only in Davis could someone imagine running to the left of Wolk. The Junior candidacy has been floating out there (and sinking) for more than a month now. Nobody is buying it. Wolk has all the key endorsements locked up (including a bunch of the so-called Davis progressives). I predict Junior will bow out soon.
I must agree with anonymous’ diagnosis. Although I don’t really think Junior will run, his trial balloon candidacy is totally driven by disgruntled BIG San Joaquin developers (Grupe, Spanos et al), unhappy with Wolk’s hard line against their sprawling developments in the floodplain. Only in Davis could someone imagine running to the left of Wolk. The Junior candidacy has been floating out there (and sinking) for more than a month now. Nobody is buying it. Wolk has all the key endorsements locked up (including a bunch of the so-called Davis progressives). I predict Junior will bow out soon.
I must agree with anonymous’ diagnosis. Although I don’t really think Junior will run, his trial balloon candidacy is totally driven by disgruntled BIG San Joaquin developers (Grupe, Spanos et al), unhappy with Wolk’s hard line against their sprawling developments in the floodplain. Only in Davis could someone imagine running to the left of Wolk. The Junior candidacy has been floating out there (and sinking) for more than a month now. Nobody is buying it. Wolk has all the key endorsements locked up (including a bunch of the so-called Davis progressives). I predict Junior will bow out soon.
I must agree with anonymous’ diagnosis. Although I don’t really think Junior will run, his trial balloon candidacy is totally driven by disgruntled BIG San Joaquin developers (Grupe, Spanos et al), unhappy with Wolk’s hard line against their sprawling developments in the floodplain. Only in Davis could someone imagine running to the left of Wolk. The Junior candidacy has been floating out there (and sinking) for more than a month now. Nobody is buying it. Wolk has all the key endorsements locked up (including a bunch of the so-called Davis progressives). I predict Junior will bow out soon.
………..sounds like fun already.
………..sounds like fun already.
………..sounds like fun already.
………..sounds like fun already.
The 5th SD very competitive, in terms of partisan registration and partisan voting patterns. However, there are a few reasons why I suspect it will be less competitive in 2008 than it was in 2004:
1) California, due in part to the ever-increasing Hispanicization of the state, is even more Democratic now than it was a decade ago. As this trend continues, it will make it harder for Republicans, ceteris paribus, to win this kind of a race;
2) Assuming that the presidential race in 2008 produces an even bigger Democratic turnout in California than it did in 2004 (motivated by the passion here to change direction post-Bush), that will help all down-ticket Democrats, including their candidate in the 5th SD; and
3) In 2004, the Republicans ran a particularly good candidate, the former mayor of Modesto, Podesta (sp?). No one who is likely to run in the Republican primary in 2008 will be quite that strong.
Yet, in at least two respects, Wolk is not as strong a candidate as Machado: she is not an incumbent State Senator; and she is not well known, or known at all, in the entire southern half of the district.
My guess at this point is that Wolk will be the Democratic nominee; and she should be favored to win by 5-10%.
The 5th SD very competitive, in terms of partisan registration and partisan voting patterns. However, there are a few reasons why I suspect it will be less competitive in 2008 than it was in 2004:
1) California, due in part to the ever-increasing Hispanicization of the state, is even more Democratic now than it was a decade ago. As this trend continues, it will make it harder for Republicans, ceteris paribus, to win this kind of a race;
2) Assuming that the presidential race in 2008 produces an even bigger Democratic turnout in California than it did in 2004 (motivated by the passion here to change direction post-Bush), that will help all down-ticket Democrats, including their candidate in the 5th SD; and
3) In 2004, the Republicans ran a particularly good candidate, the former mayor of Modesto, Podesta (sp?). No one who is likely to run in the Republican primary in 2008 will be quite that strong.
Yet, in at least two respects, Wolk is not as strong a candidate as Machado: she is not an incumbent State Senator; and she is not well known, or known at all, in the entire southern half of the district.
My guess at this point is that Wolk will be the Democratic nominee; and she should be favored to win by 5-10%.
The 5th SD very competitive, in terms of partisan registration and partisan voting patterns. However, there are a few reasons why I suspect it will be less competitive in 2008 than it was in 2004:
1) California, due in part to the ever-increasing Hispanicization of the state, is even more Democratic now than it was a decade ago. As this trend continues, it will make it harder for Republicans, ceteris paribus, to win this kind of a race;
2) Assuming that the presidential race in 2008 produces an even bigger Democratic turnout in California than it did in 2004 (motivated by the passion here to change direction post-Bush), that will help all down-ticket Democrats, including their candidate in the 5th SD; and
3) In 2004, the Republicans ran a particularly good candidate, the former mayor of Modesto, Podesta (sp?). No one who is likely to run in the Republican primary in 2008 will be quite that strong.
Yet, in at least two respects, Wolk is not as strong a candidate as Machado: she is not an incumbent State Senator; and she is not well known, or known at all, in the entire southern half of the district.
My guess at this point is that Wolk will be the Democratic nominee; and she should be favored to win by 5-10%.
The 5th SD very competitive, in terms of partisan registration and partisan voting patterns. However, there are a few reasons why I suspect it will be less competitive in 2008 than it was in 2004:
1) California, due in part to the ever-increasing Hispanicization of the state, is even more Democratic now than it was a decade ago. As this trend continues, it will make it harder for Republicans, ceteris paribus, to win this kind of a race;
2) Assuming that the presidential race in 2008 produces an even bigger Democratic turnout in California than it did in 2004 (motivated by the passion here to change direction post-Bush), that will help all down-ticket Democrats, including their candidate in the 5th SD; and
3) In 2004, the Republicans ran a particularly good candidate, the former mayor of Modesto, Podesta (sp?). No one who is likely to run in the Republican primary in 2008 will be quite that strong.
Yet, in at least two respects, Wolk is not as strong a candidate as Machado: she is not an incumbent State Senator; and she is not well known, or known at all, in the entire southern half of the district.
My guess at this point is that Wolk will be the Democratic nominee; and she should be favored to win by 5-10%.
I agree with all of Rifkin’s points except one, that Wolk would not be as strong as Machado. I think she’ll be stronger.
1. Gender. Women do better in general’s, as well as Dem primaries, especially when they have a long resume like Wolk.
2. Voting History. Wolk out-polled Machado by large numbers when they both appeared on the ballot together. 50% of the Senate District is in Wolk’s Assembly District. When Machado ran in a new SD 5 in 2004 he had far fewer voters familiar with him.
3. Environment. Although Wolk is certainly has a more liberal evironmental record than Machado, that difference will work to her advantage in this district when she finally squares off against a Spanos/developer-backed Republican. Being liberal in this case will help, not hurt.
So, in the end, it’ll be Wolk by 10-15% over whatever cannon fodder the Reeps serve up.
I agree with all of Rifkin’s points except one, that Wolk would not be as strong as Machado. I think she’ll be stronger.
1. Gender. Women do better in general’s, as well as Dem primaries, especially when they have a long resume like Wolk.
2. Voting History. Wolk out-polled Machado by large numbers when they both appeared on the ballot together. 50% of the Senate District is in Wolk’s Assembly District. When Machado ran in a new SD 5 in 2004 he had far fewer voters familiar with him.
3. Environment. Although Wolk is certainly has a more liberal evironmental record than Machado, that difference will work to her advantage in this district when she finally squares off against a Spanos/developer-backed Republican. Being liberal in this case will help, not hurt.
So, in the end, it’ll be Wolk by 10-15% over whatever cannon fodder the Reeps serve up.
I agree with all of Rifkin’s points except one, that Wolk would not be as strong as Machado. I think she’ll be stronger.
1. Gender. Women do better in general’s, as well as Dem primaries, especially when they have a long resume like Wolk.
2. Voting History. Wolk out-polled Machado by large numbers when they both appeared on the ballot together. 50% of the Senate District is in Wolk’s Assembly District. When Machado ran in a new SD 5 in 2004 he had far fewer voters familiar with him.
3. Environment. Although Wolk is certainly has a more liberal evironmental record than Machado, that difference will work to her advantage in this district when she finally squares off against a Spanos/developer-backed Republican. Being liberal in this case will help, not hurt.
So, in the end, it’ll be Wolk by 10-15% over whatever cannon fodder the Reeps serve up.
I agree with all of Rifkin’s points except one, that Wolk would not be as strong as Machado. I think she’ll be stronger.
1. Gender. Women do better in general’s, as well as Dem primaries, especially when they have a long resume like Wolk.
2. Voting History. Wolk out-polled Machado by large numbers when they both appeared on the ballot together. 50% of the Senate District is in Wolk’s Assembly District. When Machado ran in a new SD 5 in 2004 he had far fewer voters familiar with him.
3. Environment. Although Wolk is certainly has a more liberal evironmental record than Machado, that difference will work to her advantage in this district when she finally squares off against a Spanos/developer-backed Republican. Being liberal in this case will help, not hurt.
So, in the end, it’ll be Wolk by 10-15% over whatever cannon fodder the Reeps serve up.
glad you pointed that out, yolo forensic. wolk’s work to limit development in the floodplain over the past couple of years sort of complicates the easy narrative of her as a mindless-pro-development hack.
to rifkin’s reasons, i would add wolk’s advantage in the north half of the district. all the republicans whose names have been floated are from the southern half; machado’s weak showing last time around can in part be credited to the fact that he was more moderate than the dems in the yolo-solano part of the district like, and that he was at any rate barely known by the time of the election. wolk, just by dint of being a known wuantity up here, will be harder to tarnish under a flood of attack mailings.
if wolk gets it, if the solano turnout is high, if the davis dems bother with getting out the student vote at UCD like they did in ’04, and if the unions do their job in stockton, my guess is that she beats machado’s margin of victory by a fair percentage. i don’t know enough about garamendi to say anything about him, to be fair, but i suspect that the trends are in any generic democrat’s favor, doubly so if the republicans nominate a firebreathing conservative.
glad you pointed that out, yolo forensic. wolk’s work to limit development in the floodplain over the past couple of years sort of complicates the easy narrative of her as a mindless-pro-development hack.
to rifkin’s reasons, i would add wolk’s advantage in the north half of the district. all the republicans whose names have been floated are from the southern half; machado’s weak showing last time around can in part be credited to the fact that he was more moderate than the dems in the yolo-solano part of the district like, and that he was at any rate barely known by the time of the election. wolk, just by dint of being a known wuantity up here, will be harder to tarnish under a flood of attack mailings.
if wolk gets it, if the solano turnout is high, if the davis dems bother with getting out the student vote at UCD like they did in ’04, and if the unions do their job in stockton, my guess is that she beats machado’s margin of victory by a fair percentage. i don’t know enough about garamendi to say anything about him, to be fair, but i suspect that the trends are in any generic democrat’s favor, doubly so if the republicans nominate a firebreathing conservative.
glad you pointed that out, yolo forensic. wolk’s work to limit development in the floodplain over the past couple of years sort of complicates the easy narrative of her as a mindless-pro-development hack.
to rifkin’s reasons, i would add wolk’s advantage in the north half of the district. all the republicans whose names have been floated are from the southern half; machado’s weak showing last time around can in part be credited to the fact that he was more moderate than the dems in the yolo-solano part of the district like, and that he was at any rate barely known by the time of the election. wolk, just by dint of being a known wuantity up here, will be harder to tarnish under a flood of attack mailings.
if wolk gets it, if the solano turnout is high, if the davis dems bother with getting out the student vote at UCD like they did in ’04, and if the unions do their job in stockton, my guess is that she beats machado’s margin of victory by a fair percentage. i don’t know enough about garamendi to say anything about him, to be fair, but i suspect that the trends are in any generic democrat’s favor, doubly so if the republicans nominate a firebreathing conservative.
glad you pointed that out, yolo forensic. wolk’s work to limit development in the floodplain over the past couple of years sort of complicates the easy narrative of her as a mindless-pro-development hack.
to rifkin’s reasons, i would add wolk’s advantage in the north half of the district. all the republicans whose names have been floated are from the southern half; machado’s weak showing last time around can in part be credited to the fact that he was more moderate than the dems in the yolo-solano part of the district like, and that he was at any rate barely known by the time of the election. wolk, just by dint of being a known wuantity up here, will be harder to tarnish under a flood of attack mailings.
if wolk gets it, if the solano turnout is high, if the davis dems bother with getting out the student vote at UCD like they did in ’04, and if the unions do their job in stockton, my guess is that she beats machado’s margin of victory by a fair percentage. i don’t know enough about garamendi to say anything about him, to be fair, but i suspect that the trends are in any generic democrat’s favor, doubly so if the republicans nominate a firebreathing conservative.
I have voted for Lois in the past; however, if Garamendi Jr. runs he has my vote. I think we need some new leadership with some fresh new ideas. His background and commitment to higher education make him a strong candidate that can beat Lois Wolk and do a better job of representing the 5th district.
Run John Jr. run! You have many more votes in Yolo County than you may realize.
I have voted for Lois in the past; however, if Garamendi Jr. runs he has my vote. I think we need some new leadership with some fresh new ideas. His background and commitment to higher education make him a strong candidate that can beat Lois Wolk and do a better job of representing the 5th district.
Run John Jr. run! You have many more votes in Yolo County than you may realize.
I have voted for Lois in the past; however, if Garamendi Jr. runs he has my vote. I think we need some new leadership with some fresh new ideas. His background and commitment to higher education make him a strong candidate that can beat Lois Wolk and do a better job of representing the 5th district.
Run John Jr. run! You have many more votes in Yolo County than you may realize.
I have voted for Lois in the past; however, if Garamendi Jr. runs he has my vote. I think we need some new leadership with some fresh new ideas. His background and commitment to higher education make him a strong candidate that can beat Lois Wolk and do a better job of representing the 5th district.
Run John Jr. run! You have many more votes in Yolo County than you may realize.
how specifically has garamendi’s committment to higher ed differed from wolk’s? i’m curious to see what kind of specific issues people have, beyond just a general perception of her being “moderate.”
i’m also interested in what people might know about john jr, beyond the fact that his dad is currently lt. governor.
(conflict of interest disclaimer: while i have absolutely no formal connection with the wolk campaign, i did play soccer with one of her kids in AYSO)
how specifically has garamendi’s committment to higher ed differed from wolk’s? i’m curious to see what kind of specific issues people have, beyond just a general perception of her being “moderate.”
i’m also interested in what people might know about john jr, beyond the fact that his dad is currently lt. governor.
(conflict of interest disclaimer: while i have absolutely no formal connection with the wolk campaign, i did play soccer with one of her kids in AYSO)
how specifically has garamendi’s committment to higher ed differed from wolk’s? i’m curious to see what kind of specific issues people have, beyond just a general perception of her being “moderate.”
i’m also interested in what people might know about john jr, beyond the fact that his dad is currently lt. governor.
(conflict of interest disclaimer: while i have absolutely no formal connection with the wolk campaign, i did play soccer with one of her kids in AYSO)
how specifically has garamendi’s committment to higher ed differed from wolk’s? i’m curious to see what kind of specific issues people have, beyond just a general perception of her being “moderate.”
i’m also interested in what people might know about john jr, beyond the fact that his dad is currently lt. governor.
(conflict of interest disclaimer: while i have absolutely no formal connection with the wolk campaign, i did play soccer with one of her kids in AYSO)
We spoke to John and I’ll have an interview him later on this week hopefully, but there seems clear interest on his part to run. And some of things that Yolo Forensic said are completely false.
We spoke to John and I’ll have an interview him later on this week hopefully, but there seems clear interest on his part to run. And some of things that Yolo Forensic said are completely false.
We spoke to John and I’ll have an interview him later on this week hopefully, but there seems clear interest on his part to run. And some of things that Yolo Forensic said are completely false.
We spoke to John and I’ll have an interview him later on this week hopefully, but there seems clear interest on his part to run. And some of things that Yolo Forensic said are completely false.
Andal’s probably the only candidate who can win this for Republicans since Aghazarian is just a run of the mill conservative like Podesto. But SD5 still leans Dem if ever so slightly, so generic Dem vs. generic Rep means slight victory for generic Dem.
And I agree with those who think Garamendi will run to the right of Wolk. He would be stupid not to.
Andal’s probably the only candidate who can win this for Republicans since Aghazarian is just a run of the mill conservative like Podesto. But SD5 still leans Dem if ever so slightly, so generic Dem vs. generic Rep means slight victory for generic Dem.
And I agree with those who think Garamendi will run to the right of Wolk. He would be stupid not to.
Andal’s probably the only candidate who can win this for Republicans since Aghazarian is just a run of the mill conservative like Podesto. But SD5 still leans Dem if ever so slightly, so generic Dem vs. generic Rep means slight victory for generic Dem.
And I agree with those who think Garamendi will run to the right of Wolk. He would be stupid not to.
Andal’s probably the only candidate who can win this for Republicans since Aghazarian is just a run of the mill conservative like Podesto. But SD5 still leans Dem if ever so slightly, so generic Dem vs. generic Rep means slight victory for generic Dem.
And I agree with those who think Garamendi will run to the right of Wolk. He would be stupid not to.
Does Davis have a Man of the Year?
I nominate Doug Paul Davis (his nom de guerre). His blog creation has opened a cornucopia of political information and dialogue for an informed Davis electorate.
Does Davis have a Man of the Year?
I nominate Doug Paul Davis (his nom de guerre). His blog creation has opened a cornucopia of political information and dialogue for an informed Davis electorate.
Does Davis have a Man of the Year?
I nominate Doug Paul Davis (his nom de guerre). His blog creation has opened a cornucopia of political information and dialogue for an informed Davis electorate.
Does Davis have a Man of the Year?
I nominate Doug Paul Davis (his nom de guerre). His blog creation has opened a cornucopia of political information and dialogue for an informed Davis electorate.
In reference to an earlier point made, the 5th SD is in fact not terribly competitive in partisan registration. This is the official demographics from the State Sen website.
http://www.sen.ca.gov/ftp/SEN/senplan/SD05.HTM
Now, the district doesn’t vote as Dem as it is registered, but a 14 point advantage pretty well guarantees that a Dem will be elected baring a major disruption to the normal pattern of elections. Those numbers may be out of date, but they are likely to only have become more favorable to Dems.
As far as the primary: It’s probably too early to see if Wolk or Garamendi will draw the endorsements and volunteers that will ultimately make the difference, but here is one take. The numbers above demonstrate an almost dead even split between Dems in the Yolo-Solano block and Dems in the Stockton block. I suspect, however, that Wolk’s reasonably high popularity in Yol-ano will help keep her from losing many primary voters in the area. Any local progressive disillusionment with her (I’ll believe it when I see it…) is going to be hard pressed to overcome the large group of people who think she’s alright and see no reason not to annoint the person who is logically next in the legislative ladder. Meanwhile, I suspect neither has much intrinsic name recognition in Stockton, and that on their records, Garamendi is unlikely to make the significant gains he would need.
[I expect that any serious primary challenge to Tauscher, which might otherwise mobilize progressive voters, will sputter out amidst a lack of national interest. The energy (and money!) that might have made it possible in 2006 will instead go out of state into the Presidential campaign.]
Personally, that leaves one remaining question to me. Is Wolk really the right state Senator? I think she’s a great person, but periodic articles in the Bee and elsewhere have suggested she hasn’t fit in to the “Sacramento set” as well as she might have. While that might be a virtue in principle, I worry it has and will continue to impare her ability to get big things done for the district and the state. I don’t have any idea if Garamendi would be better from that perspective, but just something to keep in mind with Ms. Wolk.
In reference to an earlier point made, the 5th SD is in fact not terribly competitive in partisan registration. This is the official demographics from the State Sen website.
http://www.sen.ca.gov/ftp/SEN/senplan/SD05.HTM
Now, the district doesn’t vote as Dem as it is registered, but a 14 point advantage pretty well guarantees that a Dem will be elected baring a major disruption to the normal pattern of elections. Those numbers may be out of date, but they are likely to only have become more favorable to Dems.
As far as the primary: It’s probably too early to see if Wolk or Garamendi will draw the endorsements and volunteers that will ultimately make the difference, but here is one take. The numbers above demonstrate an almost dead even split between Dems in the Yolo-Solano block and Dems in the Stockton block. I suspect, however, that Wolk’s reasonably high popularity in Yol-ano will help keep her from losing many primary voters in the area. Any local progressive disillusionment with her (I’ll believe it when I see it…) is going to be hard pressed to overcome the large group of people who think she’s alright and see no reason not to annoint the person who is logically next in the legislative ladder. Meanwhile, I suspect neither has much intrinsic name recognition in Stockton, and that on their records, Garamendi is unlikely to make the significant gains he would need.
[I expect that any serious primary challenge to Tauscher, which might otherwise mobilize progressive voters, will sputter out amidst a lack of national interest. The energy (and money!) that might have made it possible in 2006 will instead go out of state into the Presidential campaign.]
Personally, that leaves one remaining question to me. Is Wolk really the right state Senator? I think she’s a great person, but periodic articles in the Bee and elsewhere have suggested she hasn’t fit in to the “Sacramento set” as well as she might have. While that might be a virtue in principle, I worry it has and will continue to impare her ability to get big things done for the district and the state. I don’t have any idea if Garamendi would be better from that perspective, but just something to keep in mind with Ms. Wolk.
In reference to an earlier point made, the 5th SD is in fact not terribly competitive in partisan registration. This is the official demographics from the State Sen website.
http://www.sen.ca.gov/ftp/SEN/senplan/SD05.HTM
Now, the district doesn’t vote as Dem as it is registered, but a 14 point advantage pretty well guarantees that a Dem will be elected baring a major disruption to the normal pattern of elections. Those numbers may be out of date, but they are likely to only have become more favorable to Dems.
As far as the primary: It’s probably too early to see if Wolk or Garamendi will draw the endorsements and volunteers that will ultimately make the difference, but here is one take. The numbers above demonstrate an almost dead even split between Dems in the Yolo-Solano block and Dems in the Stockton block. I suspect, however, that Wolk’s reasonably high popularity in Yol-ano will help keep her from losing many primary voters in the area. Any local progressive disillusionment with her (I’ll believe it when I see it…) is going to be hard pressed to overcome the large group of people who think she’s alright and see no reason not to annoint the person who is logically next in the legislative ladder. Meanwhile, I suspect neither has much intrinsic name recognition in Stockton, and that on their records, Garamendi is unlikely to make the significant gains he would need.
[I expect that any serious primary challenge to Tauscher, which might otherwise mobilize progressive voters, will sputter out amidst a lack of national interest. The energy (and money!) that might have made it possible in 2006 will instead go out of state into the Presidential campaign.]
Personally, that leaves one remaining question to me. Is Wolk really the right state Senator? I think she’s a great person, but periodic articles in the Bee and elsewhere have suggested she hasn’t fit in to the “Sacramento set” as well as she might have. While that might be a virtue in principle, I worry it has and will continue to impare her ability to get big things done for the district and the state. I don’t have any idea if Garamendi would be better from that perspective, but just something to keep in mind with Ms. Wolk.
In reference to an earlier point made, the 5th SD is in fact not terribly competitive in partisan registration. This is the official demographics from the State Sen website.
http://www.sen.ca.gov/ftp/SEN/senplan/SD05.HTM
Now, the district doesn’t vote as Dem as it is registered, but a 14 point advantage pretty well guarantees that a Dem will be elected baring a major disruption to the normal pattern of elections. Those numbers may be out of date, but they are likely to only have become more favorable to Dems.
As far as the primary: It’s probably too early to see if Wolk or Garamendi will draw the endorsements and volunteers that will ultimately make the difference, but here is one take. The numbers above demonstrate an almost dead even split between Dems in the Yolo-Solano block and Dems in the Stockton block. I suspect, however, that Wolk’s reasonably high popularity in Yol-ano will help keep her from losing many primary voters in the area. Any local progressive disillusionment with her (I’ll believe it when I see it…) is going to be hard pressed to overcome the large group of people who think she’s alright and see no reason not to annoint the person who is logically next in the legislative ladder. Meanwhile, I suspect neither has much intrinsic name recognition in Stockton, and that on their records, Garamendi is unlikely to make the significant gains he would need.
[I expect that any serious primary challenge to Tauscher, which might otherwise mobilize progressive voters, will sputter out amidst a lack of national interest. The energy (and money!) that might have made it possible in 2006 will instead go out of state into the Presidential campaign.]
Personally, that leaves one remaining question to me. Is Wolk really the right state Senator? I think she’s a great person, but periodic articles in the Bee and elsewhere have suggested she hasn’t fit in to the “Sacramento set” as well as she might have. While that might be a virtue in principle, I worry it has and will continue to impare her ability to get big things done for the district and the state. I don’t have any idea if Garamendi would be better from that perspective, but just something to keep in mind with Ms. Wolk.
Surprise surprise. One of this site’s anonymous authors, “Davisite,” wants to nominate the other, “Doug Paul Davis,” for Davis Man of the Year? Talk about giving yourself a pat on the back.
Let’s make this simple. Garamendi runs to the left of Lois, he wouldn’t lose the general – he’d lose the primary first. The 5th Senate District is a far cry from our little hamlet folks. Visit Stockton, Vacaville, or Fairfield sometime.
Surprise surprise. One of this site’s anonymous authors, “Davisite,” wants to nominate the other, “Doug Paul Davis,” for Davis Man of the Year? Talk about giving yourself a pat on the back.
Let’s make this simple. Garamendi runs to the left of Lois, he wouldn’t lose the general – he’d lose the primary first. The 5th Senate District is a far cry from our little hamlet folks. Visit Stockton, Vacaville, or Fairfield sometime.
Surprise surprise. One of this site’s anonymous authors, “Davisite,” wants to nominate the other, “Doug Paul Davis,” for Davis Man of the Year? Talk about giving yourself a pat on the back.
Let’s make this simple. Garamendi runs to the left of Lois, he wouldn’t lose the general – he’d lose the primary first. The 5th Senate District is a far cry from our little hamlet folks. Visit Stockton, Vacaville, or Fairfield sometime.
Surprise surprise. One of this site’s anonymous authors, “Davisite,” wants to nominate the other, “Doug Paul Davis,” for Davis Man of the Year? Talk about giving yourself a pat on the back.
Let’s make this simple. Garamendi runs to the left of Lois, he wouldn’t lose the general – he’d lose the primary first. The 5th Senate District is a far cry from our little hamlet folks. Visit Stockton, Vacaville, or Fairfield sometime.
Noone in the legislature really expects that term limits will be changed. This has been brought up at each session for a few years now and each time it is rejected..
Noone in the legislature really expects that term limits will be changed. This has been brought up at each session for a few years now and each time it is rejected..
Noone in the legislature really expects that term limits will be changed. This has been brought up at each session for a few years now and each time it is rejected..
Noone in the legislature really expects that term limits will be changed. This has been brought up at each session for a few years now and each time it is rejected..
Any success repealing term limits will probably ultimately include a clause specifying that extending or repealing terms limits will not apply to the office a legislator is currently serving in. I.e. if it happened this session, Wolk and Machado would still be forced to term out, but would be subject to the new rules in any future office they might hold.
Incidentally, I think momentum is slowly building for an extension of term limits. I wouldn’t expect it to happen this year, but I feel like sooner rather than later this will finally take place. Also, wouldn’t this require a referendum to change or remove, since that was the mechanism originally used to implemet term limits?
Any success repealing term limits will probably ultimately include a clause specifying that extending or repealing terms limits will not apply to the office a legislator is currently serving in. I.e. if it happened this session, Wolk and Machado would still be forced to term out, but would be subject to the new rules in any future office they might hold.
Incidentally, I think momentum is slowly building for an extension of term limits. I wouldn’t expect it to happen this year, but I feel like sooner rather than later this will finally take place. Also, wouldn’t this require a referendum to change or remove, since that was the mechanism originally used to implemet term limits?
Any success repealing term limits will probably ultimately include a clause specifying that extending or repealing terms limits will not apply to the office a legislator is currently serving in. I.e. if it happened this session, Wolk and Machado would still be forced to term out, but would be subject to the new rules in any future office they might hold.
Incidentally, I think momentum is slowly building for an extension of term limits. I wouldn’t expect it to happen this year, but I feel like sooner rather than later this will finally take place. Also, wouldn’t this require a referendum to change or remove, since that was the mechanism originally used to implemet term limits?
Any success repealing term limits will probably ultimately include a clause specifying that extending or repealing terms limits will not apply to the office a legislator is currently serving in. I.e. if it happened this session, Wolk and Machado would still be forced to term out, but would be subject to the new rules in any future office they might hold.
Incidentally, I think momentum is slowly building for an extension of term limits. I wouldn’t expect it to happen this year, but I feel like sooner rather than later this will finally take place. Also, wouldn’t this require a referendum to change or remove, since that was the mechanism originally used to implemet term limits?