Monday Morning Thoughts: Reading the Tea Leaves for Tuesday

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It seems like this is a perpetual exercise locally, given that we don’t have polling to guide our way.  These are my best guesses as to what is going to happen tomorrow night.

City Council:  From the start, just about everyone has seen the race as Will Arnold, Brett Lee and Lucas Frerichs winning, and Matt Williams finishing perhaps a somewhat distant fourth with Will Arnold finishing first.

My view hasn’t changed that much on this – perhaps the most uneventful council election since I have been following them dating back to 2002.  I will point out a couple of interesting caveats.  First, while I still believe Will Arnold will finish first, he has clearly been coasting a lot more than you might expect.  His campaign finance haul of just over $17,000 is frankly not impressive and he has oddly backed it up with $26,000 of his own money.

That is a lot more money than anyone has spent in recent elections and the total of contributions is not very impressive.  Can Lucas Frerichs or Brett Lee top him at the polls?  Perhaps.  I would still put Will Arnold as the favorite to finish first, but he didn’t exactly sprint to the finish line here.

That brings us to Matt Williams.  Matt Williams was a clear underdog the moment that Will Arnold announced, and his only chance was to put together a team like Joe Krovoza (2010), Brett Lee (2012) and Robb Davis (2014).  He didn’t.  Perhaps a secondary chance would have been to pull a Susie Boyd and become the only candidate to oppose Measure A, on the grounds that it was premature.  That’s clearly what some in the No on A camp wanted, but not what he delivered.

Like Will Arnold, Matt Williams dumped in a ton of his own money, $22,000.  Unlike Will Arnold, Matt Williams’ campaign fundraising take wasn’t just mediocre, but poor at $4735.  Given that, I don’t see much chance of an upset.

Measure A: While Measure A has been contentious, as any land use vote, driving around town, I wonder how deeply that divided sentiment really goes.  If you talk to either side, they believe, I think honestly and legitimately, that they are going to win.  For me this is still a coin toss that could go either way.

One thing early on I noted is that, if you end up seeing the same people who lined up for and against the 2005 Measure X, then Measure A is going to go down to defeat.  The measure isn’t going to win based on the arguments of the same people who backed Measure X.

So has that changed?  One thing that was interesting about yesterday’s finale piece from the campaign was who signed on to the yes side: Lois Wolk, Mariko Yamada, Brett Lee, Bob Black, Jerry Adler, Ken Wagstaff, Bill Kopper and Will Arnold.  It is interesting in that you have several of the old guard council from the 1970s.

But to me, most interesting is that Mariko Yamada, Brett Lee, Ken Wagstaff and Bill Kopper all opposed Measure X.  In fact, Brett Lee and Ken Wagstaff were in the leadership of No on X.  So, you have Michael Harrington, who also opposed X, saying that this is the worst project ever, and you have four current or former electeds voting otherwise with their feet.

That is a coup for the Yes on Measure A side, but, ultimately, it is unclear looking down the list of endorsers how many converts there actually are.  In the end, I think this is far closer than any previous Measure J/R vote.  It will come down to two factors that we cannot predict.  First, how do the less engaged citizens vote?  Second, how many college students will come out to vote for Bernie and then cast their vote with Yes on A?

From the start, it seemed like the candidacy of Bernie Sanders would be a huge wild card in determining whether A would pass.  Given that Bernie Sanders is fighting to the end and came to UC Davis last week, that could be enough to push A over the top.  Stay tuned.

3rd Senate District:  I have known Mariko Yamada since 1998 when I was the Field Director for Mark DeSio’s state Senate campaign and she was the office manager for the coordinated Democratic campaign.  I didn’t see her political campaign coming back then, and I certainly didn’t believe that she would win in 2008.

That said, this is a different sort of campaign than in 2008.  Bill Dodd, even without the independent expenditures, is a formidable opponent.  A few weeks ago, I put her chances of winning as slim.  Since then, I have heard from her side that they have polls showing it to be close, but Dodd’s campaign strongly disputes that notion.

However, the question at least for now isn’t whether she will defeat Bill Dodd but rather whether she can finish ahead of the Republican in the race and finish second – thereby making it to November.

4th Assembly District: This has been probably the surprise campaign and it has less to do with the candidates and more to do with the millions that independent expenditure (IE) campaigns have pumped into the race, with the majority for Cecilia Aguiar-Curry.

I have been told that the polls consistently show County Supervisor Don Saylor running fourth.  My take at this point is that Dan Wolk will likely be in the top two and the question is whether Ms. Aguiar-Curry can beat out the only Republican, Charlie Schaupp, for second.  With Donald Trump having wrapped up his nomination but Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders still battling, even though it appears Ms. Clinton will be the nominee, that might give a small surge of Democratic voters and help Ms. Aguiar-Curry face Dan Wolk for the general election.

A friend of mine had this take: Dan Wolk, they say, has been a bitter disappointment as mayor.  Very weak in his opinion on the issues, rarely showing initiative or even participating.  His colleagues often audibly complain, at least in private, that he comes to meetings ill-prepared.  At the beginning of the campaign, they were strongly leaning toward Cecilia Aguiar-Curry, noting her strong record in Winters.

That has changed, mostly because of the strong conservative interests backing her for office.  They not only fear that she would be beholden to those interests, but also that by allowing those forces to win, it will set a bad precedent and open the door to watering down the process.

From their view then, voting for Dan Wolk is the best way to keep the process clean and stand up to millions of conservative dollars seeking to water down the Democratic Party.

In both the Senate and Assembly races, the stakes are high.  If the Republican finishes in the top two, the Democrat will have an easy race to victory in two heavily Democratic districts.  But if it ends up being two Democrats, each figures to be a real battle.

I suspect that Bill Dodd would beat Mariko Yamada in a one-on-one race, but I think Dan Wolk would have a tough time against Cecilia Aguiar-Curry.  One thing to watch, if you end up with Ms. Aguiar-Curry and Mr. Schaupp combining for more than 50 percent of the vote, Dan Wolk is likely in trouble in the general.  We’ll have to see.

—David M. Greenwald reporting

About The Author

David Greenwald is the founder, editor, and executive director of the Davis Vanguard. He founded the Vanguard in 2006. David Greenwald moved to Davis in 1996 to attend Graduate School at UC Davis in Political Science. He lives in South Davis with his wife Cecilia Escamilla Greenwald and three children.

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72 thoughts on “Monday Morning Thoughts: Reading the Tea Leaves for Tuesday”

    1. South of Davis

      BP wrote:

      > As I’ve been saying from the start Measure A wins 55 to 45.

      Since Measure P (Wildhorse Ranch) lost 75 to 25, why do you think that twice as many people will vote yes on for a bigger project at Nishi?  All of the No on P people I know fell in to two camps, the 1. I hate development and want to keep Davis small and 2. lack of development keeps the value of my home and/or rent in Davis high.  Other than the people in East Wildhorse that voted no so they could keep looking at an open field I don’t see why anyone against a small development in 2009 would be for a bigger development in 2015.

    2. Rich RifkinWDE 73

      I just took a look at next Wednesday’s newspaper. Turns out you are wrong, BP. According to the advanced story, Measure A lost 40.7% to 59.3%.

      I don’t think in and of itself, the Nishi project is that big of a deal for Davis. It is almost an exclave. That site is far more contiguous with UCD than it is with the city. However, I think in the context of the Measure J/R process, Nishi is huge.

      Its failure — especially if the margin is as big as I expect it will be — will stop the MRIC developers from even trying to get approval. It will also convince the owners of the Covell Village site (Pole Line and Covell) to forego any other development opportunity there. The owners of the land near Sutter Hospital will also give up, knowing that Davis voters want no peripheral growth.

      Another possible outcome of Nishi getting killed will be to encourage opponents of infill/redevelopment projects — such as the proposed student apartments on 5th Street near the post office — to collect signatures in order to force those developments onto the ballot, where it is not unlikely the voters of Davis will reject a project.

      As all this plays out, renters in Davis will live in worse conditions and be forced to pay more, if they want to remain in our city.

      1. Barack Palin

        SOD and Rich, I know many voters like myself who voted against Measure X and Wildhorse Ranch who are now holding our nose and voting yes on Measure A.  We don’t see this as peripheral development and its location next to campus I feel will get it to pass.

        55% to 45% in favor, bank on it.

      2. David Greenwald Post author

        I could be wrong and could be missing something – I just don’t see anything to indicate another blow out and see a lot of things to indicate this is going to be much closer than the previous elections. Bear in mind, a lot of Bernie votes will bode well for A.

        1. wdf1

          Not quite sure how a bigger vote for Presidential primary candidates is a guarantee for more participation one way or another in Measure A.

          1. David Greenwald Post author

            One theory is that once students get out to vote, they’ll vote for a housing project that will provide for more student housing. It’s not a guarantee. It’s just a theory.

        2. Justice4All

          I actually think Bernie being here in Davis is great for Brett Lee. Hes been a champion of the renters rights, and many students know that. Something like 2000 people registered to vote in the last 30 days of registration in the city of Davis. Students and renters are going to influence this election, and as far as I know, Brett has been the only one to reach out to them.

      3. Misanthrop

        My guess is your numbers overestimate the no vote. Those numbers are nearly the same as the Covell Village vote in 2006 but the opponents are not so lockstep on Nishi so it will likely be closer. Still you are generally correct if Measure A fails on what it means for Davis and its future except that the innovation parks aren’t coming back even if Nishi passes. The one by Sutter will get built in Woodland, the MRIC will go to West Sac. UC will build a third campus in Sac and Davis will continue to suffer from a declining infrastructure particularly its roads, bike trails and police protection.

      4. wdf1

        Rifkin:  I just took a look at next Wednesday’s newspaper.

        An early edition of the Chicago Tribute once had the headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman”

  1. Misanthrop

    Dan shows up unprepared is the best you can do to hit a guy who has had millions spent against him by some of the most reactionary forces in California politics today. Well one thing is certain you never stopped trying to undermine his campaign from day one. The fact that he has a young family, a day job and an Assembly campaign to run might explain why he has so much on his plate. In my mind its not about how busy he is today but about whether at the end of the discussion he tried his best to do what is right. Its about his judgement. When the campaign is over and the next legislature is seated do you want a person who tried to stand up to big oil, big tobacco and big sugar or do you want someone who took their money and pretended it didn’t matter just like those industries pretend there is not global warming and oil trains are safe, nicotine doesn’t cause cancer or sugar doesn’t cause diabetes.

    Voting is about who is going to best represent a voters interests not about litmus tests and ideological purity. On balance Dan Wolk best meets that test for this voter.

    1. OutsideThought

      @Misanthrop there are five people in this race with families and full-time jobs. Please don’t leverage your argument with this as a bullet-note.

      Dan has consistently flip-flopped time and time again. While you are concerned about the IE monies being spent for Aguiar-Curry, I’m concerned about is lack of experience for our region. When asked about Agriculture, he notes “coming home from college and feeling so renewed looking at the walnuts while riding his bike.”  I’m concerned for affordable housing-Davis is a mess with this issue-and he’s taken money from special interest groups right in our own City Limits to sway his positions. (I just drank a soda and smashed it on my head) If he’s managed this poorly, how can we trust that he will manage the entire region. It’s not about Davis-it’s about an entire District.

      Can we be reminded that he’s in the pocket of Lois Wolk and Bill Dodd? To me, that’s much worse than big oil.

      What would he have done without this oil/tobacco argument against the Winters Mayor? None of the five glossy mailers I received this weekend paid for by Dan Wolk for Assembly made a mention of something with substance against her.

      So let me get this right….What he is telling me is that the Winters Mayor, a town of 7,000 people, is in bed with big oil and tobacco. Right, all those years of big oil and tobacco being a big issue for the town of 7,000 people. Do I need to mention 7,000 people again? It’s humorous.

      I’m disappointed. I hoped more for our Mayor-but he’s a lame duck. He proved it.

      As a Republican, my vote will go to Aguiar-Curry. That’s what Wolk is worried about.

      1. The Pugilist

        Also point out Rochelle and Brett have the same constraints – work, kids, council and have put in a lot more effort than Dan.  In fact, both are single parents no less.  So Misanthrop’s excuse is bunk

    2. The Pugilist

      You seem to obsessed with this point as you make it every time the Vanguard publishes something.

      “The fact that he has a young family, a day job and an Assembly campaign to run might explain why he has so much on his plate.”

      You seem to think this is an excuse for him to be unprepared at council meetings.  I think it’s a reason why he wasn’t ready to be on the council.

      “Voting is about who is going to best represent a voters interests not about litmus tests and ideological purity. ”

      To me, voting is about electing someone who can represent the district as best as possible and I don’t know that Dan Wolk is ready to do that.  Unfortunately I don’t have an alternative to him, so I’ll hold my nose and vote for the lesser of the flawed choices.

      1. Misanthrop

        I did, every time David published a hit on Dan I tried to add some balance and expose what David was doing. I bet if you did an analysis there is no candidate that has received as much bad press from David Greenwald this election. Anyway David could drag in something negative against Dan he did so. Sometimes it was so bad people were commenting why did David even bother with some stories, one about the Cannery comes to mind, not realizing that the story was simply a vehicle to attack Dan Wolk. Because of David’s tax status with the Davis Vanguard he doesn’t endorse but the message here is clear. If one candidate pays him for an ad and another doesn’t you get more than an ad you get the other candidate bashed on a regular basis by David Greenwald himself and sadly it seems to have paid off. Just look at the negative tone of most of the commenters here towards Dan. If Dan places out of the money on Tuesday David will probably raise his political ad rates.

        One interesting aside is that David never disputed any of my claims about what he was doing. Nor has anyone pointed out that until recently Joe Kravoza, who ran against Dan last time and came in 4th and who also might have won if Dan hadn’t  run in 2014  has been on the Davis Vanguard Editorial Board.

        The Davis Vanguard, while not endorsing anyone, has clearly had an anti Dan Wolk bias all along.

        1. The Pugilist

          A lot of people have been critical of Wolk’s efforts on council.  The Vanguard’s job is to point that out.  We know the Enterprise won’t.  We know people like you will bend over backwards to cut him slack.

        2. Misanthrop

          Of course here is the catch, how has Dan’s level of attention to detail effected his ability to vote on an issue? In the end it hasn’t. Now you may agree with him or not on issues but when its time to vote the discussion is thorough and Dan knows what he is doing when he casts his vote and that is what he is elected to do.

  2. dlemongello

    There you go again, if you don’t have money, forget it. When you don’t have a big machine behind you that generates money, it trickles in, but it’s from real people. Matt may finish 4th, but I don’t think it will be as distant as you seem to.

    And as for Aguiar-Curry, it’s the money that’s ruined her.

    1. hpierce

      Will make a small wager that Wolk/Saylor will split the ‘Davis vote’, do poorly elsewhere in the District, and that Aguilar-Curry will make it to the November “tournament of champions”.  It is, after all, not a District that Davis “owns”.  Can’t see her coming in “first”, but all she has to do is come in “second” tomorrow.

      Will be interesting to see how the Wolk/Saylor %-ages wind up…

      ‘Handicapping’ only… not expressing a personal preference… might share that after the polls close tomorrow…

      If you don’t vote, don’t whine later…

    2. OutsideThought

      @dlemongello “And as for Aguiar-Curry, it’s the money that’s ruined her.”

      I couldn’t disagree more.

      She will receive votes from Davis-based on the simple fact that many do not like Saylor or Wolk. Moreover, she has something going for her these two don’t; the Repbublican vote. We won’t fall for Charlie again-he’s another lame duck.

      We had a graduation party the other night with over 50 conservatives-all pulling for Aguiar-Curry. Does the oil and tobacco bother us? Not at all. It should have gone to Charlie, but these guys know he’s lost in the mud-and won’t win.

      I want to get back to the basics. If Davis wants the job so bad; align together and stop tossing “lefties” in the same races. Wolk and Saylor should know better by now. They are going to split votes and she will come out ahead. Especially with GOP support.

      As for the Davis City Council race-we are once again faced with the puppet strings of the Wolk family. Arnold, her right hand man, will fill the shoes of her son and keep her voice heard. We always take this bait.

      Our family stands by Lucas and Lee. Two hardworking, dedicated politicians that represent our city outside of the council. They are well respected across many communities and at the county level. They stand on their own two feet. It’s what we need-solid representation outside of our bubble that is Davis.

    3. Misanthrop

      Without that money she would have had no chance. Why do you think she looked the other way but as Bob Dunning pointed out somehow the IE’s that Aguiar-Curry couldn’t denounce ended up with family photos of the candidate.

      1. OutsideThought

        You have to know how the IE game works. IE’s pull photos from the world wide web; not from the candidate’s directly. They pull from the candidate’s sites and social media primarily. And if a candidate is tossing out photos on the web, it’s fair game.

        Without any IE monies, none of the candidate’s would have had a chance to pull off the marketing, commercials, ads, etc. in this race-but they all need it and want it-despite what Saylor or any of them say. I wake up to her commercials, see them during the NBA Finals and fall asleep to them during Prime Time TV. I highly doubt she, or any of the candidates, could throw enough Sudwerk fundraisers to ever pay for that fee.

        Side note; I did some digging-how is it that Dan doesn’t end up with more money from the endorsements he puts out there? Anyone know what the Democratic Party sent him a check for?  Would be interesting to find out. With the amount of endorsements he tips his hat to, you’d think the guy would have done more with their money by now.

        PS. Dunning is a whimp.

         

        1. Rich RifkinWDE 73

          If you are going to disparage the man, it might help if you could spell wimp. I guess you are too much of “weak, ineffectual, timid person” to call someone a name while revealing your own name.

  3. hpierce

    I’d rather have two hard-working citizens, than two hard-working politicians… IMO, Will Arnold fits that bill… one of the current incumbents does not.

    1. Misanthrop

      Dan is a hard working citizen in his county counsel day job over in Solano County. Its interesting that he has been endorsed by most of the Supervisors where he works. Should he get to Sacramento I have faith that he will vigorously carry out the duties of the office and be a surer vote for legislation that will make California and his district a better place. Dan has his day job and he also has the youngest kids of anyone on the council. I think people should cut him some slack and recognize that Dan has been a consistent voice for families and healthier kids.

      1. OutsideThought

        All of the candidates in this race are hard working citizens-so this point is mute to me.

        I surely hope Dan has the endorsement of his peer-unit.

        Whomever lands in Sacramento will (in their minds) vigorously carry out the duties of the office and be a surer vote for legislation that will make California and this District a better place. This is the basis of why they all run for office.

        In cutting slack, I think people should recognize that the other candidates in this race have been consistent voices for families. Don as a Supervisor, and Cecilia as the Mayor of Winters. Both Don and Cecilia have children; which again, is another mute point.

         

        1. South of Davis

          OutsideThought wrote:

          > Both Don and Cecilia have children; which again,

          > is another mute point.

          Cecelia’s oldest daughter is three years younger than Dan and Don’s oldest son is just four years younger than Dan while Dan’s daughters are five and seven.  I think it is fair to point out that Dan has “children” at home while I would not say that Don and Cecilia have “children” (maybe “adult children” but not “children”)…

      2. The Pugilist

        I don’t buy that he is a hard working citizen and frankly, you don’t get slack for taking on commitments you can’t afford to make.  If it was too much to be on the council, work and a parent, then he should have resigned rather than give us a half-back effort.

  4. Misanthrop

    “We had a graduation party the other night with over 50 conservatives-all pulling for Aguiar-Curry. Does the oil and tobacco bother us? Not at all.”

    Conservatives who aren’t bothered by big oil or tobacco aren’t for Dan Wolk but they support Aguiar-Curry.  I understand that.

    1. OutsideThought

      “Moreover, she has something going for her these two don’t; the Repbublican vote. We won’t fall for Charlie again-he’s another lame duck.”

      Then I’m sure you understand this point too. If given the choice to climb a tree with the lefties, or vote for a moderate Dem, we’re with the moderate. Especially when we don’t have a good choice on our side of the aisle.

    1. hpierce

      Well, had you said “what do you call a moderate Democrat in California?” I think the right answer, if you are a Davisite, is a “Republican”.  Those who identify as “Republican” in California lean heavily to Trump/Cruz rather than Kasich (before Cruz and Kasich suspended their campaigns).

      Moderate Republicans, and moderate Democrats are moving toward “No Party” affiliation (fastest growing ‘party’ in CA!) or identifying as Libertarian.  10 years from now, if things continue as they have been trending, suspect both the Democrat and Republican 2nd/3rd deviants on the bell-curve will be minority parties.  Both parties seem to be oblivious to this trend… happened before, ~ 1850-1860.  Emergence of the Republican party (Abe Lincoln must be ‘spinning’ if he can see the current crop). Whigs disappeared, ‘No-nothings’ did, and the Democratic party was split in two diverse “wings”.

      In any event, as Presidential elections will go, we’re likely to have the first Jewish president,the first female one, or the first ‘side-show performer’.  Fun times…

  5. Michael Harrington

    Don’t count Matt out.  He has worked far harder in this race than Lucas, at least in the precincts.  I’ve tabled most of the No on A events at the Wednesday and Saturday markets.  The Manager lumps the political tables in one section, so I have had a birds eye view of the other tables, including Matt’s.  He’s very good at talking to the voters, and I think most of the time if he engages them, they are going to vote one for him.

    But we shall see tomorrow night …

    1. ryankelly

      You’re basing your prediction on activity at the Farmer’s Market?  Again your research is personal observation, based on a tiny sample, and the results are just a hunch.  Sort of like your traffic study, Mike.

    2. hpierce

      More likely Wednesday AM… the rigor used to count the VBM ballots, and provisional ballots, together which might approach 40-50% of the total votes, takes time, but Elections is full of professionals.

      Yolo County Elections staff are truly awesome… Tony and Freddie have been fantastic… we are a very lucky county!

    1. Matt Williams

      Not counting the wave of recent registrations the 33,713 total registered voters fall into the following age categories:

      18-25 = 5,970

      26-55 = 16,001

      56-65 = 5,450

      66-107 = 6,260

      Bad Birth Date = 32

  6. Marina Kalugin

    anyone who is not living in the dorms can register….and there was a time that there were polling places on campus also

    some of campus is Yolo county and some is solano…

    and if on campus, I don’t know if they are allowed to vote on the city issues….

    but back when the surface water expense was on the vote, I don’t recall if UCD had “jumped in yet”….students should have voted.

    we are now only on tier two for our modest and crappy, mostly original, 70s 3/2 in South Davis….and our water bills have been in the $180s these last months…

    what retires can afford THAT?    not me, that is why I am still working… and moving….LOL

     

    1. hpierce

      If a student’s residence is on-campus (and if that is where they are registered, other than ‘home’), they can vote in County/State/Federal elections if they are registered in Yolo County…  just like El Macero/Willowbank/Binning Tract, etc.

      As to,

      but back when the surface water expense was on the vote, I don’t recall if UCD had “jumped in yet”….students should have voted.

      Well, UCD was a part of the joint powers, and it may be logical that students could have voted on UCD participation… I do not support [actually, REJECT] the concept that students residing anywhere other than the city of Davis should have had ANY vote on the city’s participation or rates.

       

       

    2. South of Davis

      Marina wrote:

      > some of campus is Yolo county and some is solano…

      I thought the county line was moved south of Putah Creek so all of UCD was in Yolo County in the 1990’s (A quick Google search did not pop anything up)?

    3. dlemongello

      I expect you mean your water/sewage/garbage bill. Maybe you do mean just the water portion of the bill.  Either way you are using an outrageous amount of water or a more outrageous amount of water. Do you have a reason for this? My w/s/g bill is $85-89 for 2 of us, my tenants’ is $118-120ish for 4 of them.

  7. Marina Kalugin

    my sons registered as soon as they turned 18 and continue to vote HERE in Davis as it is both of their “permanent” addresses…one is even back living here for a while, but soon heading out for a 2 years stint in SF….still considers and always will that Davis is his permanent address….heck the car insurance is way cheaper in davis than in Sac and elsewhere…somehow they both have that financial mind of the mom…..and even more so the brilliant dad… plus the mail doesn’t get stolen and the stuff on the doorsteps doesn’t walk away…and this is the only way I get to see them regularly…they are so busy..

  8. Rich RifkinWDE 73

    GREENWOOD: “I have been told that the polls consistently show County Supervisor Don Saylor running fourth.  My take at this point is that Dan Wolk will likely be in the top two and the question is whether Ms. Aguiar-Curry can beat out the only Republican, Charlie Schaupp, for second.”

    I think you are underestimating the vote for Charlie Schaupp. He is the only Republican in the race, this year. In 2014 he missed finishing first by under 300 votes, when Dustin Call grabbed almost 5,000 Republican votes. Perhaps Schaupp won’t get all of the Dustin Call vote — some of that might actually go to Aguiar-Curry — but I suspect Schaupp will get enough of it to push him into first place.

    I agree that Saylor will finish fourth. The question with Don is whether he finishes a very strong fourth — like Joe Krovoza, who received nearly 15,000 votes in 2014 — or if left/liberal voters decide he has no chance and concentrate their votes on Dan Wolk. I think the Sierra Club endorsement of Krovoza helped Joe get a lot of votes (especially in Yolo County); and Don has no endorsement that important. Nonetheless, I think Saylor will get better than 10,000 votes, and it would not surprise me if he tops 15,000, if turnout (for Bernie/Hillary) is strong.

    So in my mind the real question is second or third for Wolk or Aguiar-Curry. I really have no idea how well (or badly) all the IE money for Cecilia is playing among voters, especially Democratic voters. Maybe oil money will tar her? Or maybe the endless ads are just raising her name ID and making positive associations. Two things I would not discount are her gender and her heritage. She is the only women running and the only Hispanic candidate. I suspect both of those will draw votes in her direction.

    My guess as to the order of finish:

    1. Schaupp; 2. Aguiar-Curry; 3. Wolk; 4. Saylor; and 5. Kropp.

    1. Rich RifkinWDE 73

      Just noticed my auto-incorrect changed “Greenwald” to “Greenwood.” Sorry about that, David.

      “She is the only woman running …”

    2. Charlie_Schaupp

      Rich…You might be right.  In fact you sound like my consultant.   However, I am not so sure.  The ‘Bernie Effect’ could toss 1000’s of more votes to the Democratic candidates.  I only out stepped Wolk by 1900 votes last time…throw in 10,000 more Democrat leaning Bernie or Hillary voters in all 5 counties and I could be 3rd or 4th.   It might be Schaupp/Wolk or Schaupp/Aguiar-Curry or Wolk/Aguiar-Curry.   Some polls have Wolk ahead.   Some polls have me ahead.  Don’t really know how Aguiar-Curry is polling but I was told two months ago the IE’s would keep throwing money at getting her election until she ‘top two’s’.  So far they (IEs) spend  $2+ million…and I stuck to my plan spending about $15K.   But the only poll that counts it the ‘poll’ tomorrow (Election Day)

      1. South of Davis

        Rich wrote:

        > In 2014 he (Charlie) missed finishing first by under 300 votes,

        > when Dustin Call grabbed almost 5,000 Republican votes.

        Did anyone ever figure out who paid to have Dustin run?  It always seemed like he was put in by someone that wanted to take votes from Charlie and have two Democrats finish in the “top two”.

        With that said with the new “top two” system I don’t know why more races don’t have people playing the “split the vote game” since for less than the cost of a “cops voter guide” you could pay a guy named Hector Hernandez to run as a Democrat and get at least some Latino votes and/or a lady named Gloria Stienberg to run as a Democrat to get some female (and Jewish) votes taking votes away from the main (union funded) Democrats.

        1. South of Davis

          Rich:

          Thanks for the info.  A friend met Munger a few years back when he was down in Palo Alto showing his kids his grandparents old house on Hamilton that Munger now owns.  He said Munger was a nice guy and after he came out and found out who they were he offered to let them look inside.

          P.S. The house across the street from Munger in Palo Alto is where Gracie Wing lived when she went to Castilleja with my friends Aunt (Most people probably know “Gracie” as Grace Slick of the Jefferson Starship)…

    3. South of Davis

      Rich wrote:

      > I think you are underestimating the vote for Charlie Schaupp.

      > He is the only Republican in the race, this year. 

      I agree with Rich, but to cut David some slack when living in Davis it is easy to forget that there are parts of Assembly district where there are guys driving trucks with gun racks and Trump bumper stickers (I have never seen a gun rack or Trump bumper sticker in Davis)…

      P.S. To Rich Glad to have you back…

       

        1. hpierce

          yeah… and if you were truthful (which I have questions on) what is the decline to state, other or other party registration?  the way things are going… in a few years I could easily see where the Demos would have a 2:1 advantage over Reps… and together, would not make it up to a total of 50%.

    4. Misanthrop

      why do you think the Bernie voters will go for Saylor? Dan is much younger and has the backing of the College Dems. The Bernie/ Clinton divide is mostly an age divide.

    5. Charlie_Schaupp

      First Exit Polls on vote by mail voter  ‘polling’ are being reported by Capitol Weekly:

      SD 3 – Bill Dodd (D) starts with a lead while Mariko Yamada (D) will need to outpace the lone Republican in the field to finish second.

      AD 4 – Republican Charlie Schaupp and Democrats Cecilia Aguilar-Curry and Dan Wolk are tightly bunched at the top.

      Both of these races will likely depend on the ‘Bernie Effect’ but the news is reporting Hillary as the delegates now…Don’t know how that may effect turn-out at the polls tomorrow.

      http://capitolweekly.net/exit-poll-down-ballot-races/

       

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