Tuesday Briefs

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Letter to Blog Editor:

Lost in projection

Mr. Kirk Trost was incorrect in public comment at the Board Meeting last Thursday when he suggested that the difference between the different sets of K-6 enrollment projections, which were based on different mobility factors, is negligible. The difference in K-6 enrollment projections between the “October Projections (Mobility X)” and the January Projections (Mobility # 2) is 323 students by 2012, the last year for which Mobility X data is available – since the mobility factor used in the October projections is not public information, I call it X.

The October projections were produced for 2006-12 using 2005 data and presented to the BUSATF sometime in fall 2006 but were never made public until January 4 when the Davis Demographics & Planning included them in its PowerPoint presentation at the School Board meeting. Greg Davis, the President of DD&P, underlined the fact that these projections estimated the 2006 enrollments rather precisely (8,580 K-12 projected; 8,606 K-12 actual).

Since these projections are not accessible to the larger public anywhere else than at the website of Davis OPEN (www.davisopen.org), I am posting the numbers below. The four numbers that follow a particular year are for K-6, 7-9, 10-12, and K-12, respectively. The numbers in parentheses are the ones in the Final Report of the Task Force (p. 19) on the basis of which the recommendation to close Valley Oak was made. I believe the Board members should base their final decision on the October projections since they are the only ones that were tested by time and proven to be sound. An alternative could be to take the average of the two projections, or seek an independent review of the different sets of projections in a way that is open to the public, and not just a selected few.

2007: 4,334 (4,276); 2,075 (2,063); 2,110 (2,147); 8,519 (8,486) – 2008: 4,368 (4,246); 2,033 (2,019); 2,136 (2,141); 8,537 (8,407) – 2009: 4,357 (4,149); 2,120 (2,075); 2,115 (2,133); 8,592 (8,357) – 2010: 4,439 (4,126); 2,105 (2,052); 2,172 (2,171); 8,716 (8,350) – 2011: 4,495 (4,193); 2,140 (2,080); 2,157 (2,151); 8,792 (8,423) – 2012: 4,513 (4,190); 2,131 (2,023); 2,261 (2,211); 8,905 (8,424).

Baki Tezcan

 

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About The Author

David Greenwald is the founder, editor, and executive director of the Davis Vanguard. He founded the Vanguard in 2006. David Greenwald moved to Davis in 1996 to attend Graduate School at UC Davis in Political Science. He lives in South Davis with his wife Cecilia Escamilla Greenwald and three children.

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12 thoughts on “Tuesday Briefs”

  1. tansey thomas

    I do not think it is a good idea for OPEN to recess until later this year. There is a tendency to lose momentum and hope resulting in defeatism. I think that a low profile strategy and planning committee should continue so that later OPEN can hit the ground running.

  2. tansey thomas

    I do not think it is a good idea for OPEN to recess until later this year. There is a tendency to lose momentum and hope resulting in defeatism. I think that a low profile strategy and planning committee should continue so that later OPEN can hit the ground running.

  3. tansey thomas

    I do not think it is a good idea for OPEN to recess until later this year. There is a tendency to lose momentum and hope resulting in defeatism. I think that a low profile strategy and planning committee should continue so that later OPEN can hit the ground running.

  4. tansey thomas

    I do not think it is a good idea for OPEN to recess until later this year. There is a tendency to lose momentum and hope resulting in defeatism. I think that a low profile strategy and planning committee should continue so that later OPEN can hit the ground running.

  5. Anonymous

    Davis OPEN needs to make a concerted effort to present their case to potentially sympathetic Davis voter constituencies. Two that come to mind are the Davis senior community and socially-conscious voter-eligible UCD students. I’m sure there are also other constituencies that, with enough information, will let the telephone pollsters know where they stand on the idea of holding Valley Oak Elementary hostage to a special parcel tax.

  6. Anonymous

    Davis OPEN needs to make a concerted effort to present their case to potentially sympathetic Davis voter constituencies. Two that come to mind are the Davis senior community and socially-conscious voter-eligible UCD students. I’m sure there are also other constituencies that, with enough information, will let the telephone pollsters know where they stand on the idea of holding Valley Oak Elementary hostage to a special parcel tax.

  7. Anonymous

    Davis OPEN needs to make a concerted effort to present their case to potentially sympathetic Davis voter constituencies. Two that come to mind are the Davis senior community and socially-conscious voter-eligible UCD students. I’m sure there are also other constituencies that, with enough information, will let the telephone pollsters know where they stand on the idea of holding Valley Oak Elementary hostage to a special parcel tax.

  8. Anonymous

    Davis OPEN needs to make a concerted effort to present their case to potentially sympathetic Davis voter constituencies. Two that come to mind are the Davis senior community and socially-conscious voter-eligible UCD students. I’m sure there are also other constituencies that, with enough information, will let the telephone pollsters know where they stand on the idea of holding Valley Oak Elementary hostage to a special parcel tax.

  9. baki

    For those who are interested in Davis OPEN, we are actually not in recess. We are rather processing the messages we got from the Board on March 19. Tomorrow’s Board meeting and the one next week will help us steer our course better.

    In the meantime, please feel free to contact us at davis.open@gmail.com

    All the best,
    Baki

  10. baki

    For those who are interested in Davis OPEN, we are actually not in recess. We are rather processing the messages we got from the Board on March 19. Tomorrow’s Board meeting and the one next week will help us steer our course better.

    In the meantime, please feel free to contact us at davis.open@gmail.com

    All the best,
    Baki

  11. baki

    For those who are interested in Davis OPEN, we are actually not in recess. We are rather processing the messages we got from the Board on March 19. Tomorrow’s Board meeting and the one next week will help us steer our course better.

    In the meantime, please feel free to contact us at davis.open@gmail.com

    All the best,
    Baki

  12. baki

    For those who are interested in Davis OPEN, we are actually not in recess. We are rather processing the messages we got from the Board on March 19. Tomorrow’s Board meeting and the one next week will help us steer our course better.

    In the meantime, please feel free to contact us at davis.open@gmail.com

    All the best,
    Baki

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