Early in the process the proposition was well behind, but a strong ad campaign has pushed it ahead in some polls.
Polls taken from mid-September showed the initiative well behind in both the Field and the PPIC polls. However, polls in early October showed the initiate passing.
The three most recent polls show uncertainty and confusion.
PPIC on October 16 had the initiative failing 52-44.
SurveyUSA on October 16 had the initiative passing 48-45, within the margin of error.
The latest PPIC poll has 52-44 opposed.
What does this tell us? Well Survey USA appears to consistently have it ahead whereas PPIC has it behind. Have not seen a Field Poll in awhile on it. Field is probably the only statewide polling organization I would trust.
What is clear to me though is that Proposition 8 is at this point too close to call. And if it passes, there are two factors to blame. First, Gavin Newsome the Mayor of San Francisco. I still blame Mayor Newsome for losing the 2004 Presidential election for the Democrats. It was his arrogant battle for Gay Marriage during a Presidential year that allowed Karl Rove and the Republicans to put Gay Marriage bans on the ballots across the country in order to get huge Republican turnouts and that turned races all over including the decisive state of Ohio which decided the Presidency.
Proposition 8 began to turn around when Proponents of the initiative played another arrogant clip of Mayor Newsome.
In this ad he says:
“This door’s wide open now. It’s going to happen, whether you like it or not.”
Of course you have to have seen it to see his exaggerated facial expressions.
And the rest of the implications of that ad are preposterous:
“If the same sex marriage initiative goes down to defeat people will get sued over their personal beliefs, churches may lose their tax exemptions and gay marriage will be taught in public schools, etc.”
But the real impact of that ad was the Mayor. Sorry Mayor, but can you not for once keep your big mouth close. If this measure passes it is on you.
Fortunately for the rest of us and Mayor Newsome in particular, the ad campaign has moved on.
Now it show a couple from Massachusetts who say that when their state legalized marriage for same-sex partners, their children in schools were forced to learn that boys could marry boys.
Now it turns out this is false.
Ted Mitchell is the President of the State Board of Education:
“Let me be clear, there is nothing in California state law that would require the teaching of marriage and that will not change. These ads are ridiculous and they are an insult to California’s voters.”
Delaine Eastin who is the past Superintendent of Public of Instruction:
“That ad is wrong. Not one person with any credibility has said otherwise… Prop. 8 has nothing to do with education, and the proponents know it. Not one word in Prop. 8 mentions education and no child can be forced, against the will of their parents, to attend any health-related class. California law prohibits it.”
Present Superintendent of Public Instruction has lent his name and credibility to a No on 8 ad that sets the record straight.
“The Yes on 8 ads are alarming and irresponsible. Our public schools are not required to teach about marriage. And, in fact, curriculum involving health issues is chosen by local school governing boards….”
Click on the video below to see that response ad.
What is interesting to me is that the tactic that they have taken. The yes side is not going for a straight on approach with either of their major ads. If they really believed that the majority of the state was against gay marriage, would they not simply do a straight approach, if you do not want gay marriage, vote for Proposition 8. They are not doing that. Instead they are relying on falsified scare tactics to pass the measure. And they have the money to get away with it.
We shall see now if it works.
—David M. Greenwald reporting
It will be interesting to see how the Davis Enterprise weighs in on Prop.8 as their sister paper (owned by the McNaughtons), The Daily Republic in Fairfield says “Yes. The proposition is about preserving marriage, not an attack on the gay lifestyle. Domestic unions should be encouraged, just not calling them marriages.” I’m pretty upset about this, and hope that the Enterprise does not take the same stance.
It will be interesting to see how the Davis Enterprise weighs in on Prop.8 as their sister paper (owned by the McNaughtons), The Daily Republic in Fairfield says “Yes. The proposition is about preserving marriage, not an attack on the gay lifestyle. Domestic unions should be encouraged, just not calling them marriages.” I’m pretty upset about this, and hope that the Enterprise does not take the same stance.
It will be interesting to see how the Davis Enterprise weighs in on Prop.8 as their sister paper (owned by the McNaughtons), The Daily Republic in Fairfield says “Yes. The proposition is about preserving marriage, not an attack on the gay lifestyle. Domestic unions should be encouraged, just not calling them marriages.” I’m pretty upset about this, and hope that the Enterprise does not take the same stance.
It will be interesting to see how the Davis Enterprise weighs in on Prop.8 as their sister paper (owned by the McNaughtons), The Daily Republic in Fairfield says “Yes. The proposition is about preserving marriage, not an attack on the gay lifestyle. Domestic unions should be encouraged, just not calling them marriages.” I’m pretty upset about this, and hope that the Enterprise does not take the same stance.
TO counteract this, Tactical Syntax has some great banner ads. It’s a shame our crazy opposition has to lie.
TO counteract this, Tactical Syntax has some great banner ads. It’s a shame our crazy opposition has to lie.
TO counteract this, Tactical Syntax has some great banner ads. It’s a shame our crazy opposition has to lie.
TO counteract this, Tactical Syntax has some great banner ads. It’s a shame our crazy opposition has to lie.
I’m going to bet that the Enterprise knows its audience and endorses No on 8
I’m going to bet that the Enterprise knows its audience and endorses No on 8
I’m going to bet that the Enterprise knows its audience and endorses No on 8
I’m going to bet that the Enterprise knows its audience and endorses No on 8
Do you know anything about the methodology of the two polls that would give some clue as to why the results are rather different?
Does it reflect the wording of the question, possible?
Do you know anything about the methodology of the two polls that would give some clue as to why the results are rather different?
Does it reflect the wording of the question, possible?
Do you know anything about the methodology of the two polls that would give some clue as to why the results are rather different?
Does it reflect the wording of the question, possible?
Do you know anything about the methodology of the two polls that would give some clue as to why the results are rather different?
Does it reflect the wording of the question, possible?
Blame Gavin Newsome for Kerry’s loss! Newsome is a hero there is never a good time to push the envelope. Why not blame Kerry, Bush, Rove, Bin Laden, Swift Boaters, religous fundamentalists, gun nuts, oil companies, military contractors and everyone who pulled the lever for Bush instead of Newsom.
I think that is the dumbest thing you have ever written.
Blame Gavin Newsome for Kerry’s loss! Newsome is a hero there is never a good time to push the envelope. Why not blame Kerry, Bush, Rove, Bin Laden, Swift Boaters, religous fundamentalists, gun nuts, oil companies, military contractors and everyone who pulled the lever for Bush instead of Newsom.
I think that is the dumbest thing you have ever written.
Blame Gavin Newsome for Kerry’s loss! Newsome is a hero there is never a good time to push the envelope. Why not blame Kerry, Bush, Rove, Bin Laden, Swift Boaters, religous fundamentalists, gun nuts, oil companies, military contractors and everyone who pulled the lever for Bush instead of Newsom.
I think that is the dumbest thing you have ever written.
Blame Gavin Newsome for Kerry’s loss! Newsome is a hero there is never a good time to push the envelope. Why not blame Kerry, Bush, Rove, Bin Laden, Swift Boaters, religous fundamentalists, gun nuts, oil companies, military contractors and everyone who pulled the lever for Bush instead of Newsom.
I think that is the dumbest thing you have ever written.
From the UK newspaper, The Independent,Friday,Oct.17:
“Recent polls, which had for months been tilted in favor of gay marriages, are now showing that 47 per cent of respondents are backing the amendment outlawing such unions, with 42 per cent opposed and the rest undecided.”
…several points: I believe that the above poll WAS a Field poll, the one touted as the most accurate by DPD. It is important to note that this majority shift to a YES on 8 position has gotten almost no media play. One has to question whether this is to thwart
potential undecided voters from considering going against what has been trumpeted as the clear will of the CA electorate for a No on 8 victory. Finally, the political Yes ad that depicts the taking of young children on a public school field trip to a same-sex marriage ceremony is a powerful and real counterargument to the No on 8’s legalistic position on the public education issue.
From the UK newspaper, The Independent,Friday,Oct.17:
“Recent polls, which had for months been tilted in favor of gay marriages, are now showing that 47 per cent of respondents are backing the amendment outlawing such unions, with 42 per cent opposed and the rest undecided.”
…several points: I believe that the above poll WAS a Field poll, the one touted as the most accurate by DPD. It is important to note that this majority shift to a YES on 8 position has gotten almost no media play. One has to question whether this is to thwart
potential undecided voters from considering going against what has been trumpeted as the clear will of the CA electorate for a No on 8 victory. Finally, the political Yes ad that depicts the taking of young children on a public school field trip to a same-sex marriage ceremony is a powerful and real counterargument to the No on 8’s legalistic position on the public education issue.
From the UK newspaper, The Independent,Friday,Oct.17:
“Recent polls, which had for months been tilted in favor of gay marriages, are now showing that 47 per cent of respondents are backing the amendment outlawing such unions, with 42 per cent opposed and the rest undecided.”
…several points: I believe that the above poll WAS a Field poll, the one touted as the most accurate by DPD. It is important to note that this majority shift to a YES on 8 position has gotten almost no media play. One has to question whether this is to thwart
potential undecided voters from considering going against what has been trumpeted as the clear will of the CA electorate for a No on 8 victory. Finally, the political Yes ad that depicts the taking of young children on a public school field trip to a same-sex marriage ceremony is a powerful and real counterargument to the No on 8’s legalistic position on the public education issue.
From the UK newspaper, The Independent,Friday,Oct.17:
“Recent polls, which had for months been tilted in favor of gay marriages, are now showing that 47 per cent of respondents are backing the amendment outlawing such unions, with 42 per cent opposed and the rest undecided.”
…several points: I believe that the above poll WAS a Field poll, the one touted as the most accurate by DPD. It is important to note that this majority shift to a YES on 8 position has gotten almost no media play. One has to question whether this is to thwart
potential undecided voters from considering going against what has been trumpeted as the clear will of the CA electorate for a No on 8 victory. Finally, the political Yes ad that depicts the taking of young children on a public school field trip to a same-sex marriage ceremony is a powerful and real counterargument to the No on 8’s legalistic position on the public education issue.
“Blame Gavin Newsome for Kerry’s loss”
It is best to be gracious in victory and Newsome got carried away.
I hope Proposition 8 passes, but if that happens the victors must remain on the high road and show respect to the losers. This movement has a long way to go beyond California.
“Blame Gavin Newsome for Kerry’s loss”
It is best to be gracious in victory and Newsome got carried away.
I hope Proposition 8 passes, but if that happens the victors must remain on the high road and show respect to the losers. This movement has a long way to go beyond California.
“Blame Gavin Newsome for Kerry’s loss”
It is best to be gracious in victory and Newsome got carried away.
I hope Proposition 8 passes, but if that happens the victors must remain on the high road and show respect to the losers. This movement has a long way to go beyond California.
“Blame Gavin Newsome for Kerry’s loss”
It is best to be gracious in victory and Newsome got carried away.
I hope Proposition 8 passes, but if that happens the victors must remain on the high road and show respect to the losers. This movement has a long way to go beyond California.
My introduction to Gavin Newsome was his speech at the King Hall graduation some months ago. Putting aside for a moment the content of his talk, his narcissistic,self-aggrandizing aura was evident.. Newsome is clearly unable to hide the fact that he is quite “full of himself”,a flaw that portends a short stay in the political limelight before he crashes and burns.
My introduction to Gavin Newsome was his speech at the King Hall graduation some months ago. Putting aside for a moment the content of his talk, his narcissistic,self-aggrandizing aura was evident.. Newsome is clearly unable to hide the fact that he is quite “full of himself”,a flaw that portends a short stay in the political limelight before he crashes and burns.
My introduction to Gavin Newsome was his speech at the King Hall graduation some months ago. Putting aside for a moment the content of his talk, his narcissistic,self-aggrandizing aura was evident.. Newsome is clearly unable to hide the fact that he is quite “full of himself”,a flaw that portends a short stay in the political limelight before he crashes and burns.
My introduction to Gavin Newsome was his speech at the King Hall graduation some months ago. Putting aside for a moment the content of his talk, his narcissistic,self-aggrandizing aura was evident.. Newsome is clearly unable to hide the fact that he is quite “full of himself”,a flaw that portends a short stay in the political limelight before he crashes and burns.
“I believe that the above poll WAS a Field poll, the one touted as the most accurate by DPD.”
That was the survey USA poll, not the Field Poll.
“It is important to note that this majority shift to a YES on 8 position has gotten almost no media play.”
The is not true at all. A simple google search would show there has been a lot of coverage. I’ve been bombarded with messages over the last few weeks with a variety of press clippings and notes of lament.
“Finally, the political Yes ad that depicts the taking of young children on a public school field trip to a same-sex marriage ceremony is a powerful and real counterargument to the No on 8’s legalistic position on the public education issue.”
I would characterize that as a likely falsehood scare tactic.
“I believe that the above poll WAS a Field poll, the one touted as the most accurate by DPD.”
That was the survey USA poll, not the Field Poll.
“It is important to note that this majority shift to a YES on 8 position has gotten almost no media play.”
The is not true at all. A simple google search would show there has been a lot of coverage. I’ve been bombarded with messages over the last few weeks with a variety of press clippings and notes of lament.
“Finally, the political Yes ad that depicts the taking of young children on a public school field trip to a same-sex marriage ceremony is a powerful and real counterargument to the No on 8’s legalistic position on the public education issue.”
I would characterize that as a likely falsehood scare tactic.
“I believe that the above poll WAS a Field poll, the one touted as the most accurate by DPD.”
That was the survey USA poll, not the Field Poll.
“It is important to note that this majority shift to a YES on 8 position has gotten almost no media play.”
The is not true at all. A simple google search would show there has been a lot of coverage. I’ve been bombarded with messages over the last few weeks with a variety of press clippings and notes of lament.
“Finally, the political Yes ad that depicts the taking of young children on a public school field trip to a same-sex marriage ceremony is a powerful and real counterargument to the No on 8’s legalistic position on the public education issue.”
I would characterize that as a likely falsehood scare tactic.
“I believe that the above poll WAS a Field poll, the one touted as the most accurate by DPD.”
That was the survey USA poll, not the Field Poll.
“It is important to note that this majority shift to a YES on 8 position has gotten almost no media play.”
The is not true at all. A simple google search would show there has been a lot of coverage. I’ve been bombarded with messages over the last few weeks with a variety of press clippings and notes of lament.
“Finally, the political Yes ad that depicts the taking of young children on a public school field trip to a same-sex marriage ceremony is a powerful and real counterargument to the No on 8’s legalistic position on the public education issue.”
I would characterize that as a likely falsehood scare tactic.
>Blame Gavin Newsome for Kerry's loss! Newsome is a hero there is never a good time to push the envelope. Why not blame Kerry, Bush, Rove, Bin Laden, Swift Boaters, religous fundamentalists, gun nuts, oil companies, military contractors and everyone who pulled the lever for Bush instead of Newsom.
I think that is the dumbest thing you have ever written.<
Your comment would have been more interesting if you had addressed the actual point I made which was that Karl Rove used the gay marriage issue to drive up Evangelical turnout in key battleground states. Your comment does not address that point for some reason.
>Blame Gavin Newsome for Kerry's loss! Newsome is a hero there is never a good time to push the envelope. Why not blame Kerry, Bush, Rove, Bin Laden, Swift Boaters, religous fundamentalists, gun nuts, oil companies, military contractors and everyone who pulled the lever for Bush instead of Newsom.
I think that is the dumbest thing you have ever written.<
Your comment would have been more interesting if you had addressed the actual point I made which was that Karl Rove used the gay marriage issue to drive up Evangelical turnout in key battleground states. Your comment does not address that point for some reason.
>Blame Gavin Newsome for Kerry's loss! Newsome is a hero there is never a good time to push the envelope. Why not blame Kerry, Bush, Rove, Bin Laden, Swift Boaters, religous fundamentalists, gun nuts, oil companies, military contractors and everyone who pulled the lever for Bush instead of Newsom.
I think that is the dumbest thing you have ever written.<
Your comment would have been more interesting if you had addressed the actual point I made which was that Karl Rove used the gay marriage issue to drive up Evangelical turnout in key battleground states. Your comment does not address that point for some reason.
>Blame Gavin Newsome for Kerry's loss! Newsome is a hero there is never a good time to push the envelope. Why not blame Kerry, Bush, Rove, Bin Laden, Swift Boaters, religous fundamentalists, gun nuts, oil companies, military contractors and everyone who pulled the lever for Bush instead of Newsom.
I think that is the dumbest thing you have ever written.<
Your comment would have been more interesting if you had addressed the actual point I made which was that Karl Rove used the gay marriage issue to drive up Evangelical turnout in key battleground states. Your comment does not address that point for some reason.
One thing Nate Silver of 538.com pointed out a few days ago on Prop 8 was that the Obama campaign in California is turning out far more marginal black and Hispanic voters and the polling suggests those marginal voters are more likely to vote yes on Prop 8 than the population at large. Nate also noted, though, that Obama is turning out more marginal 18-29 year old voters and that group is more likely to oppose Prop 8 than the population at large. A further complication on this issue is how many people who oppose gay marriage will vote “no,” thinking that a “no” vote means they are rejecting gay marriage?
As David implied (in relation to The Enterprise), Prop 8 will be rejected overwhelmingly in Davis — I would guess 2:1. Our community is younger, better educated, more liberal and less religious (in the fundamentalist sense) than most of the state. But I doubt now that most of California will follow our path on this vote. I think it passes roughly 52-48. What I don’t know is what happens to the gay couples who have married in the last 4 months — are those certificates deemed null and void? Or do they get grandfathered in?
One thing Nate Silver of 538.com pointed out a few days ago on Prop 8 was that the Obama campaign in California is turning out far more marginal black and Hispanic voters and the polling suggests those marginal voters are more likely to vote yes on Prop 8 than the population at large. Nate also noted, though, that Obama is turning out more marginal 18-29 year old voters and that group is more likely to oppose Prop 8 than the population at large. A further complication on this issue is how many people who oppose gay marriage will vote “no,” thinking that a “no” vote means they are rejecting gay marriage?
As David implied (in relation to The Enterprise), Prop 8 will be rejected overwhelmingly in Davis — I would guess 2:1. Our community is younger, better educated, more liberal and less religious (in the fundamentalist sense) than most of the state. But I doubt now that most of California will follow our path on this vote. I think it passes roughly 52-48. What I don’t know is what happens to the gay couples who have married in the last 4 months — are those certificates deemed null and void? Or do they get grandfathered in?
One thing Nate Silver of 538.com pointed out a few days ago on Prop 8 was that the Obama campaign in California is turning out far more marginal black and Hispanic voters and the polling suggests those marginal voters are more likely to vote yes on Prop 8 than the population at large. Nate also noted, though, that Obama is turning out more marginal 18-29 year old voters and that group is more likely to oppose Prop 8 than the population at large. A further complication on this issue is how many people who oppose gay marriage will vote “no,” thinking that a “no” vote means they are rejecting gay marriage?
As David implied (in relation to The Enterprise), Prop 8 will be rejected overwhelmingly in Davis — I would guess 2:1. Our community is younger, better educated, more liberal and less religious (in the fundamentalist sense) than most of the state. But I doubt now that most of California will follow our path on this vote. I think it passes roughly 52-48. What I don’t know is what happens to the gay couples who have married in the last 4 months — are those certificates deemed null and void? Or do they get grandfathered in?
One thing Nate Silver of 538.com pointed out a few days ago on Prop 8 was that the Obama campaign in California is turning out far more marginal black and Hispanic voters and the polling suggests those marginal voters are more likely to vote yes on Prop 8 than the population at large. Nate also noted, though, that Obama is turning out more marginal 18-29 year old voters and that group is more likely to oppose Prop 8 than the population at large. A further complication on this issue is how many people who oppose gay marriage will vote “no,” thinking that a “no” vote means they are rejecting gay marriage?
As David implied (in relation to The Enterprise), Prop 8 will be rejected overwhelmingly in Davis — I would guess 2:1. Our community is younger, better educated, more liberal and less religious (in the fundamentalist sense) than most of the state. But I doubt now that most of California will follow our path on this vote. I think it passes roughly 52-48. What I don’t know is what happens to the gay couples who have married in the last 4 months — are those certificates deemed null and void? Or do they get grandfathered in?
I wonder if as the wave of Obama support crests that will discourage some of the McCain/Pro 8people from voting. Of course it might have the reverse impact as Nay 8 people might stay home knowing McCain is being washed away in the rip tide.
I wonder if as the wave of Obama support crests that will discourage some of the McCain/Pro 8people from voting. Of course it might have the reverse impact as Nay 8 people might stay home knowing McCain is being washed away in the rip tide.
I wonder if as the wave of Obama support crests that will discourage some of the McCain/Pro 8people from voting. Of course it might have the reverse impact as Nay 8 people might stay home knowing McCain is being washed away in the rip tide.
I wonder if as the wave of Obama support crests that will discourage some of the McCain/Pro 8people from voting. Of course it might have the reverse impact as Nay 8 people might stay home knowing McCain is being washed away in the rip tide.
Here is a link to the recent poll on Prop. 8 by the Public Policy Institute of California.
Here is a link to the recent poll on Prop. 8 by the Public Policy Institute of California.
Here is a link to the recent poll on Prop. 8 by the Public Policy Institute of California.
Here is a link to the recent poll on Prop. 8 by the Public Policy Institute of California.
DPD:
I went back to the UK Independent article and it did not mention using Field poll results or any other specific polling survey.
Your argument that googling blogs, pro and anti Measure 8 organization newsletters and “lamenting” emails somehow represents widespread mainstream media exposure is not convincing. It is noteworthy that this rather dramatic shift seems to have been picked up first in a major UK newspaper,not in the US mainstream news media.
As described(I haven’t seen it),the public school field trip ad is reported to present factual details that I have not heard or read about being publicly challenged as false. As to whether it can be dismissed as just a scare tactic or a legitimate issue, the voters are the ultimate deciders.
DPD:
I went back to the UK Independent article and it did not mention using Field poll results or any other specific polling survey.
Your argument that googling blogs, pro and anti Measure 8 organization newsletters and “lamenting” emails somehow represents widespread mainstream media exposure is not convincing. It is noteworthy that this rather dramatic shift seems to have been picked up first in a major UK newspaper,not in the US mainstream news media.
As described(I haven’t seen it),the public school field trip ad is reported to present factual details that I have not heard or read about being publicly challenged as false. As to whether it can be dismissed as just a scare tactic or a legitimate issue, the voters are the ultimate deciders.
DPD:
I went back to the UK Independent article and it did not mention using Field poll results or any other specific polling survey.
Your argument that googling blogs, pro and anti Measure 8 organization newsletters and “lamenting” emails somehow represents widespread mainstream media exposure is not convincing. It is noteworthy that this rather dramatic shift seems to have been picked up first in a major UK newspaper,not in the US mainstream news media.
As described(I haven’t seen it),the public school field trip ad is reported to present factual details that I have not heard or read about being publicly challenged as false. As to whether it can be dismissed as just a scare tactic or a legitimate issue, the voters are the ultimate deciders.
DPD:
I went back to the UK Independent article and it did not mention using Field poll results or any other specific polling survey.
Your argument that googling blogs, pro and anti Measure 8 organization newsletters and “lamenting” emails somehow represents widespread mainstream media exposure is not convincing. It is noteworthy that this rather dramatic shift seems to have been picked up first in a major UK newspaper,not in the US mainstream news media.
As described(I haven’t seen it),the public school field trip ad is reported to present factual details that I have not heard or read about being publicly challenged as false. As to whether it can be dismissed as just a scare tactic or a legitimate issue, the voters are the ultimate deciders.
“more marginal 18-29 year old voters and that group is more likely to oppose Prop 8 than the population at large…”
My guess is that the “marginal” 18-29 yo voters will vote the same on Measure 8 as their parents, perhaps not for strictly religious reasons as much as traditional male/female cultural roles. Remember,their candidates, Obama(and Biden), do not support same sex marriage but rather full and equal rights for civil unions/domestic partnerships.
My guess is Measure 8 will carry the day. The personal struggle of the undecided voter to choose a Yes vote on 8 and feel him/herself as only part of a small politically incorrect minority has been lifted.
“more marginal 18-29 year old voters and that group is more likely to oppose Prop 8 than the population at large…”
My guess is that the “marginal” 18-29 yo voters will vote the same on Measure 8 as their parents, perhaps not for strictly religious reasons as much as traditional male/female cultural roles. Remember,their candidates, Obama(and Biden), do not support same sex marriage but rather full and equal rights for civil unions/domestic partnerships.
My guess is Measure 8 will carry the day. The personal struggle of the undecided voter to choose a Yes vote on 8 and feel him/herself as only part of a small politically incorrect minority has been lifted.
“more marginal 18-29 year old voters and that group is more likely to oppose Prop 8 than the population at large…”
My guess is that the “marginal” 18-29 yo voters will vote the same on Measure 8 as their parents, perhaps not for strictly religious reasons as much as traditional male/female cultural roles. Remember,their candidates, Obama(and Biden), do not support same sex marriage but rather full and equal rights for civil unions/domestic partnerships.
My guess is Measure 8 will carry the day. The personal struggle of the undecided voter to choose a Yes vote on 8 and feel him/herself as only part of a small politically incorrect minority has been lifted.
“more marginal 18-29 year old voters and that group is more likely to oppose Prop 8 than the population at large…”
My guess is that the “marginal” 18-29 yo voters will vote the same on Measure 8 as their parents, perhaps not for strictly religious reasons as much as traditional male/female cultural roles. Remember,their candidates, Obama(and Biden), do not support same sex marriage but rather full and equal rights for civil unions/domestic partnerships.
My guess is Measure 8 will carry the day. The personal struggle of the undecided voter to choose a Yes vote on 8 and feel him/herself as only part of a small politically incorrect minority has been lifted.
Here are examples from now three weeks ago:
Mercury News: http://www.mercurynews.com/electionsmerc/ci_10662603
CBS News in SF: http://cbs5.com/local/proposition.8.poll.2.834082.html
LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-gaymarriage8-2008oct08,0,693406.story?track=rss
And the Capitol Alert which I get, has been tracking the polls the whole time and reporting it a lot.
BTW, here is someone else who blames Newsom:
http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/p-j-gladnick/2008/10/14/sf-chron-writer-blames-mayor-newsom-naivete-if-prop-8-passes
Here are examples from now three weeks ago:
Mercury News: http://www.mercurynews.com/electionsmerc/ci_10662603
CBS News in SF: http://cbs5.com/local/proposition.8.poll.2.834082.html
LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-gaymarriage8-2008oct08,0,693406.story?track=rss
And the Capitol Alert which I get, has been tracking the polls the whole time and reporting it a lot.
BTW, here is someone else who blames Newsom:
http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/p-j-gladnick/2008/10/14/sf-chron-writer-blames-mayor-newsom-naivete-if-prop-8-passes
Here are examples from now three weeks ago:
Mercury News: http://www.mercurynews.com/electionsmerc/ci_10662603
CBS News in SF: http://cbs5.com/local/proposition.8.poll.2.834082.html
LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-gaymarriage8-2008oct08,0,693406.story?track=rss
And the Capitol Alert which I get, has been tracking the polls the whole time and reporting it a lot.
BTW, here is someone else who blames Newsom:
http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/p-j-gladnick/2008/10/14/sf-chron-writer-blames-mayor-newsom-naivete-if-prop-8-passes
Here are examples from now three weeks ago:
Mercury News: http://www.mercurynews.com/electionsmerc/ci_10662603
CBS News in SF: http://cbs5.com/local/proposition.8.poll.2.834082.html
LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-gaymarriage8-2008oct08,0,693406.story?track=rss
And the Capitol Alert which I get, has been tracking the polls the whole time and reporting it a lot.
BTW, here is someone else who blames Newsom:
http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/p-j-gladnick/2008/10/14/sf-chron-writer-blames-mayor-newsom-naivete-if-prop-8-passes
“What I don’t know is what happens to the gay couples who have married in the last 4 months”
Correctly, this will have to be taken up by the US Supreme Court, answering the question.. is it unconstitutional to limit the traditional definition of the word marriage to heterosexual unions if full and equal rights exist for same-sex unions? It is critical that this be a US Supreme Court decision that is controlling nationally so that marriages,civil unions and domestic partnerships be recognized as valid across State lines.
“What I don’t know is what happens to the gay couples who have married in the last 4 months”
Correctly, this will have to be taken up by the US Supreme Court, answering the question.. is it unconstitutional to limit the traditional definition of the word marriage to heterosexual unions if full and equal rights exist for same-sex unions? It is critical that this be a US Supreme Court decision that is controlling nationally so that marriages,civil unions and domestic partnerships be recognized as valid across State lines.
“What I don’t know is what happens to the gay couples who have married in the last 4 months”
Correctly, this will have to be taken up by the US Supreme Court, answering the question.. is it unconstitutional to limit the traditional definition of the word marriage to heterosexual unions if full and equal rights exist for same-sex unions? It is critical that this be a US Supreme Court decision that is controlling nationally so that marriages,civil unions and domestic partnerships be recognized as valid across State lines.
“What I don’t know is what happens to the gay couples who have married in the last 4 months”
Correctly, this will have to be taken up by the US Supreme Court, answering the question.. is it unconstitutional to limit the traditional definition of the word marriage to heterosexual unions if full and equal rights exist for same-sex unions? It is critical that this be a US Supreme Court decision that is controlling nationally so that marriages,civil unions and domestic partnerships be recognized as valid across State lines.
In an email, someone just asked me a question about HTML, specifically, how to write the code to link to a specific URL. For example, this link will take you to the L.A. Times, while this one takes you to a story in the L.A. Times about Apple Computer's $100,000 donation to the No on 8 campaign.
In case anyone else is interested, this is how you do hyperlinks in HTML. First note, that where I show parentheses ( ) in the L.A. Times example, you need to use angle brackets < > instead. The reason I use parentheses here is so I don't make an actual link which you could not see.
This is the formula which would link to the L.A. Times:
(a href=”http://www.latimes.com”)L.A. Times(/a)
The things you have to remember are
1) after typing a left angle bracket < type this: a href=
2) next, put in quote marks the URL of the site you want to link to: “http://www.latimes.com”
3) next, starting with the right angle and ending with the left angle >LA Times< put in the words you would like to represent that URL; and
4) close the HTML with /a>.
In an email, someone just asked me a question about HTML, specifically, how to write the code to link to a specific URL. For example, this link will take you to the L.A. Times, while this one takes you to a story in the L.A. Times about Apple Computer's $100,000 donation to the No on 8 campaign.
In case anyone else is interested, this is how you do hyperlinks in HTML. First note, that where I show parentheses ( ) in the L.A. Times example, you need to use angle brackets < > instead. The reason I use parentheses here is so I don't make an actual link which you could not see.
This is the formula which would link to the L.A. Times:
(a href=”http://www.latimes.com”)L.A. Times(/a)
The things you have to remember are
1) after typing a left angle bracket < type this: a href=
2) next, put in quote marks the URL of the site you want to link to: “http://www.latimes.com”
3) next, starting with the right angle and ending with the left angle >LA Times< put in the words you would like to represent that URL; and
4) close the HTML with /a>.
In an email, someone just asked me a question about HTML, specifically, how to write the code to link to a specific URL. For example, this link will take you to the L.A. Times, while this one takes you to a story in the L.A. Times about Apple Computer's $100,000 donation to the No on 8 campaign.
In case anyone else is interested, this is how you do hyperlinks in HTML. First note, that where I show parentheses ( ) in the L.A. Times example, you need to use angle brackets < > instead. The reason I use parentheses here is so I don't make an actual link which you could not see.
This is the formula which would link to the L.A. Times:
(a href=”http://www.latimes.com”)L.A. Times(/a)
The things you have to remember are
1) after typing a left angle bracket < type this: a href=
2) next, put in quote marks the URL of the site you want to link to: “http://www.latimes.com”
3) next, starting with the right angle and ending with the left angle >LA Times< put in the words you would like to represent that URL; and
4) close the HTML with /a>.
In an email, someone just asked me a question about HTML, specifically, how to write the code to link to a specific URL. For example, this link will take you to the L.A. Times, while this one takes you to a story in the L.A. Times about Apple Computer's $100,000 donation to the No on 8 campaign.
In case anyone else is interested, this is how you do hyperlinks in HTML. First note, that where I show parentheses ( ) in the L.A. Times example, you need to use angle brackets < > instead. The reason I use parentheses here is so I don't make an actual link which you could not see.
This is the formula which would link to the L.A. Times:
(a href=”http://www.latimes.com”)L.A. Times(/a)
The things you have to remember are
1) after typing a left angle bracket < type this: a href=
2) next, put in quote marks the URL of the site you want to link to: “http://www.latimes.com”
3) next, starting with the right angle and ending with the left angle >LA Times< put in the words you would like to represent that URL; and
4) close the HTML with /a>.
LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-gaymarriage8-2008oct08,0,693406.story?track=rss
…a short article in the Local section of the LA Times which focused entirely on the argument that it’s the Yes on 8’s fund -raising advantage that accounts for the Yes vote’s current lead. Anyone know if the LA Times printed an earlier article about No on 8’s lead in a more prominent section of the paper?
LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-gaymarriage8-2008oct08,0,693406.story?track=rss
…a short article in the Local section of the LA Times which focused entirely on the argument that it’s the Yes on 8’s fund -raising advantage that accounts for the Yes vote’s current lead. Anyone know if the LA Times printed an earlier article about No on 8’s lead in a more prominent section of the paper?
LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-gaymarriage8-2008oct08,0,693406.story?track=rss
…a short article in the Local section of the LA Times which focused entirely on the argument that it’s the Yes on 8’s fund -raising advantage that accounts for the Yes vote’s current lead. Anyone know if the LA Times printed an earlier article about No on 8’s lead in a more prominent section of the paper?
LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-gaymarriage8-2008oct08,0,693406.story?track=rss
…a short article in the Local section of the LA Times which focused entirely on the argument that it’s the Yes on 8’s fund -raising advantage that accounts for the Yes vote’s current lead. Anyone know if the LA Times printed an earlier article about No on 8’s lead in a more prominent section of the paper?
Prop 8 will pass 54 – 46 cutting the lead it had four years ago.
San Fransico and Davis will pass it but mainstream America is not ready to adopt “equality for gays and lesbians”. .
Prop 8 will pass 54 – 46 cutting the lead it had four years ago.
San Fransico and Davis will pass it but mainstream America is not ready to adopt “equality for gays and lesbians”. .
Prop 8 will pass 54 – 46 cutting the lead it had four years ago.
San Fransico and Davis will pass it but mainstream America is not ready to adopt “equality for gays and lesbians”. .
Prop 8 will pass 54 – 46 cutting the lead it had four years ago.
San Fransico and Davis will pass it but mainstream America is not ready to adopt “equality for gays and lesbians”. .
I partially agree with you, I think it ends up closer than 8. I just wonder how many Republicans are going to show up in California.
That said, I still think this is a basic demographic issue, this is just a non-issue for people my age (35) and younger. It is only a matter of time, imo.
I partially agree with you, I think it ends up closer than 8. I just wonder how many Republicans are going to show up in California.
That said, I still think this is a basic demographic issue, this is just a non-issue for people my age (35) and younger. It is only a matter of time, imo.
I partially agree with you, I think it ends up closer than 8. I just wonder how many Republicans are going to show up in California.
That said, I still think this is a basic demographic issue, this is just a non-issue for people my age (35) and younger. It is only a matter of time, imo.
I partially agree with you, I think it ends up closer than 8. I just wonder how many Republicans are going to show up in California.
That said, I still think this is a basic demographic issue, this is just a non-issue for people my age (35) and younger. It is only a matter of time, imo.
“I just wonder how many Republicans are going to show up in California.”
With absentee mail-in voting surging which,I would guess, is disproportionally strong among Republican voters, the “show up” consideration is probably not a determining factor.
“I just wonder how many Republicans are going to show up in California.”
With absentee mail-in voting surging which,I would guess, is disproportionally strong among Republican voters, the “show up” consideration is probably not a determining factor.
“I just wonder how many Republicans are going to show up in California.”
With absentee mail-in voting surging which,I would guess, is disproportionally strong among Republican voters, the “show up” consideration is probably not a determining factor.
“I just wonder how many Republicans are going to show up in California.”
With absentee mail-in voting surging which,I would guess, is disproportionally strong among Republican voters, the “show up” consideration is probably not a determining factor.
“With absentee mail-in voting surging which,I would guess, is disproportionally strong among Republican voters”
All indicators I’ve seen have suggested the opposite.
“With absentee mail-in voting surging which,I would guess, is disproportionally strong among Republican voters”
All indicators I’ve seen have suggested the opposite.
“With absentee mail-in voting surging which,I would guess, is disproportionally strong among Republican voters”
All indicators I’ve seen have suggested the opposite.
“With absentee mail-in voting surging which,I would guess, is disproportionally strong among Republican voters”
All indicators I’ve seen have suggested the opposite.
“All indicators I’ve seen have suggested the opposite.”
This sounds counter-intuitive with regard to mail-in absentee balloting. Older, less mobile voters favors Republicans. Those who feel they are too busy to stand in line to vote on election day favors Republicans. Yes, the indicators do suggest that early voting at the polls favor % Democrats but I question that it also favors % Democrats in mail-in absentee balloting.
“All indicators I’ve seen have suggested the opposite.”
This sounds counter-intuitive with regard to mail-in absentee balloting. Older, less mobile voters favors Republicans. Those who feel they are too busy to stand in line to vote on election day favors Republicans. Yes, the indicators do suggest that early voting at the polls favor % Democrats but I question that it also favors % Democrats in mail-in absentee balloting.
“All indicators I’ve seen have suggested the opposite.”
This sounds counter-intuitive with regard to mail-in absentee balloting. Older, less mobile voters favors Republicans. Those who feel they are too busy to stand in line to vote on election day favors Republicans. Yes, the indicators do suggest that early voting at the polls favor % Democrats but I question that it also favors % Democrats in mail-in absentee balloting.
“All indicators I’ve seen have suggested the opposite.”
This sounds counter-intuitive with regard to mail-in absentee balloting. Older, less mobile voters favors Republicans. Those who feel they are too busy to stand in line to vote on election day favors Republicans. Yes, the indicators do suggest that early voting at the polls favor % Democrats but I question that it also favors % Democrats in mail-in absentee balloting.
“San Fransico and Davis will pass it…”
Anon. 5:44 PM
your statement should read San Francisco and Davis will not pass it.
This confusion about what a No vote on prop. 8 means is the greatest threat to its passage.
“San Fransico and Davis will pass it…”
Anon. 5:44 PM
your statement should read San Francisco and Davis will not pass it.
This confusion about what a No vote on prop. 8 means is the greatest threat to its passage.
“San Fransico and Davis will pass it…”
Anon. 5:44 PM
your statement should read San Francisco and Davis will not pass it.
This confusion about what a No vote on prop. 8 means is the greatest threat to its passage.
“San Fransico and Davis will pass it…”
Anon. 5:44 PM
your statement should read San Francisco and Davis will not pass it.
This confusion about what a No vote on prop. 8 means is the greatest threat to its passage.
In other parts of the country, if a same-sex couple wants to get legally married, then one of them has to get a sex change operation first. That seems like a lot more work than necessary just to get married.
Is there any chance that sex change surgeons are behind this Proposition 8? It seems that they would stand to gain.
Here’s hoping that Prop. 8 goes down.
In other parts of the country, if a same-sex couple wants to get legally married, then one of them has to get a sex change operation first. That seems like a lot more work than necessary just to get married.
Is there any chance that sex change surgeons are behind this Proposition 8? It seems that they would stand to gain.
Here’s hoping that Prop. 8 goes down.
In other parts of the country, if a same-sex couple wants to get legally married, then one of them has to get a sex change operation first. That seems like a lot more work than necessary just to get married.
Is there any chance that sex change surgeons are behind this Proposition 8? It seems that they would stand to gain.
Here’s hoping that Prop. 8 goes down.
In other parts of the country, if a same-sex couple wants to get legally married, then one of them has to get a sex change operation first. That seems like a lot more work than necessary just to get married.
Is there any chance that sex change surgeons are behind this Proposition 8? It seems that they would stand to gain.
Here’s hoping that Prop. 8 goes down.
Can you unring the bell? If your marriage is currently legal can it be nullified by initiative? Even if 8 passes the courts will issue an injunction and even more people will get married under current law. Then in a few years the courts will rule prop 8 unconstitutional.
Can you unring the bell? If your marriage is currently legal can it be nullified by initiative? Even if 8 passes the courts will issue an injunction and even more people will get married under current law. Then in a few years the courts will rule prop 8 unconstitutional.
Can you unring the bell? If your marriage is currently legal can it be nullified by initiative? Even if 8 passes the courts will issue an injunction and even more people will get married under current law. Then in a few years the courts will rule prop 8 unconstitutional.
Can you unring the bell? If your marriage is currently legal can it be nullified by initiative? Even if 8 passes the courts will issue an injunction and even more people will get married under current law. Then in a few years the courts will rule prop 8 unconstitutional.
“Then in a few years the courts will rule prop 8 unconstitutional.”
Prop 8 is a constitutional amendment. It can’t be ruled unconstitutional by a court in California.
“Then in a few years the courts will rule prop 8 unconstitutional.”
Prop 8 is a constitutional amendment. It can’t be ruled unconstitutional by a court in California.
“Then in a few years the courts will rule prop 8 unconstitutional.”
Prop 8 is a constitutional amendment. It can’t be ruled unconstitutional by a court in California.
“Then in a few years the courts will rule prop 8 unconstitutional.”
Prop 8 is a constitutional amendment. It can’t be ruled unconstitutional by a court in California.
“Can you unring the bell?”
The CA Supreme Court already has made it very clear that passage of prop. 8 VOIDS their ruling to include same-sex unions in the State’s legal definition of the term, marriage. While their status may not be withdrawn in CA, it would be prudent for these couples to also get a CA civil-union status to protect their union’s legality in other states; a significant number of states now(and projected to be more after Nov. 4) have constitutional amendments in place that reject the legality of same-sex marriage status .
“Can you unring the bell?”
The CA Supreme Court already has made it very clear that passage of prop. 8 VOIDS their ruling to include same-sex unions in the State’s legal definition of the term, marriage. While their status may not be withdrawn in CA, it would be prudent for these couples to also get a CA civil-union status to protect their union’s legality in other states; a significant number of states now(and projected to be more after Nov. 4) have constitutional amendments in place that reject the legality of same-sex marriage status .
“Can you unring the bell?”
The CA Supreme Court already has made it very clear that passage of prop. 8 VOIDS their ruling to include same-sex unions in the State’s legal definition of the term, marriage. While their status may not be withdrawn in CA, it would be prudent for these couples to also get a CA civil-union status to protect their union’s legality in other states; a significant number of states now(and projected to be more after Nov. 4) have constitutional amendments in place that reject the legality of same-sex marriage status .
“Can you unring the bell?”
The CA Supreme Court already has made it very clear that passage of prop. 8 VOIDS their ruling to include same-sex unions in the State’s legal definition of the term, marriage. While their status may not be withdrawn in CA, it would be prudent for these couples to also get a CA civil-union status to protect their union’s legality in other states; a significant number of states now(and projected to be more after Nov. 4) have constitutional amendments in place that reject the legality of same-sex marriage status .
“it would be prudent for these couples to also get a CA civil-union status to protect their union’s legality in other states;”
Or have one of them get a sex change.
“it would be prudent for these couples to also get a CA civil-union status to protect their union’s legality in other states;”
Or have one of them get a sex change.
“it would be prudent for these couples to also get a CA civil-union status to protect their union’s legality in other states;”
Or have one of them get a sex change.
“it would be prudent for these couples to also get a CA civil-union status to protect their union’s legality in other states;”
Or have one of them get a sex change.