Poll: Expansion of Parcel Tax Possible; County Tax Unlikely to Pass

A poll conduct on March 13 and 14 by Ziegler Associates was presented Thursday night at the Davis School Board Meeting.  Jay Ziegler who conducted the poll told the school board that an amazing statistic was the 86% of those polled who agreed with the statement, “parcel tax is a small price to pay for our schools.” 

He believes that it is possible that the district could get the voters to approve a $600 parcel tax measure if they are convinced it is needed to maintain some of the existing school programs.

However, the poll did not gauge support at specific dollar amounts, moreover the results to me look fairly ambiguous, with the apparent strongest position even upon full information is that most people think the level of support is about right.  Moreover only 51% polled right now say they want it increased.  Two-thirds of the voters are required to pass a new measure.  Based on that information, it would appear the District would need to run a really vigorous campaign to convince people to nearly double their level of support, but it might be possible.

There are a number of interesting findings in this poll that bear scrutiny.

This shows that 69% of respondents believe that Davis schools are among the best.  This finding along with the finding about parcel taxes being a small price to pay for our schools are probably the ones that most convince Mr. Ziegler that a $600 parcel tax is possible.  I am not going to show the graphic, but it is interesting to note that support remains strong across ideology with conservative voters (65%) actually holding slightly higher satisfaction marks than middle of the road (60%).  77% of liberals are happy with the schools.  For me though, I would say I would prefer a thermometer gauge rather than a simple happy/ non-happy measure.

This one is fascinating to me at least.  We can see that the School Board enjoys a 44-14 net positive rating, the Yolo County Board of Supervisors has a 27-14 net positive rating which probably reflects more the fact that fewer people pay attention to the county than the schools.  Here’s where it gets interesting, the Davis City Council holds a 37-21 net negative rating.  For all of the chest-thumping the city council did when they polled people’s satisfaction in Davis, the council itself is fairly unpopular.  Now it does not rise to the level of the Governor or the State Legislature, but that is probably because fewer people are paying attention to it.

About half of the Davis voters polled believe that the quality of educational programs in Davis schools is protected by the parcel taxes they pay and that’s probably a good answer if you think about it, because while the parcel tax serves as a buffer, the state cuts have proven to be very detrimental.  Interpreted the right way, voters might be convinced that the educational programs will be protected better with a higher level of parcel tax.

Here is the first in a series that are mixed findings for the district.  25% support the current parcel tax, 28% want it renewed for a limited period of time at the same level, but only 24% say it is too small and needs to be increased.  On the other hand only 12% believe it should be allowed to expire.

This is a similar question but only asked of the 50% of voters who believe that the quality of educational programs in Davis schools is protected by the parcel taxes they pay.  Of those voters 31% believe it is just right, 31% believe it should be renewed for a limited period of time at the same level, but only 25% say it is too small and needs to be increased.  That tells me that both groups are fairly similar, and there is not overwhelming support for an increase in the parcel tax right now.  It does not preclude it, but it would take some sales.

Davis voters believe the Davis schools funding issue is not urgent enough to necessitate a special election, but do favor action within the year.  Only 18 percent believe there needs to be a special election with 59 percent supporting an election in November, but this may be a skewed result as the pollster indicates, “Respondents may have thought that the parcel tax is set to expire this year and this may have affected their answer to this
question.”  Based on that, the result of this question is not that meaningful other than most voters do not believe a special election is needed.

I have a bit of a problem with interpretation of this item.  Public awareness of the parcel tax is going up since 2008, probably because we have already voted on two parcel taxes, one in 2007 and one in 2008.  So the fact that 23% know the correct number (or guessed it) versus 10% in 2008 is not that significant.  Moreover, while it was the single highest response, 77% of the people got it wrong, so to spin it as a plurality got it right doesn’t hold a lot of meaning.  29% of the public think they are paying considerably more with only 12% believing they are paying considerably less, and 36% being honest and saying that they don’t know.

Here’s the with education responses, now that 29% don’t think we are already paying $500 to $1000 for parcel taxes, 52% of the voters think it is right with still only 31% believing it should be increased.

Again, the middle of the road voters are actually least supportive of increasing the parcel tax (21%) compared to 27% for conservatives.  The liberals are again most supportive at 39%.  Conservatives are most likely to want it see eliminated entirely, but about the same amount of conservatives and middle of the road voters want to see it either decreased or eliminated (17%).

This is a strange set of findings, we have overall the 86% figure that it’s a small price to pay.  Then you have 62% saying that it should be retained, 56% saying it is barely sufficient, 54% saying increase it but eliminate it once the state pays in full, and 51% say it should be increased.  I assume they were measuring each individually and asking people if they agreed, based on that a small majority favor it being increased but less than the number required to support a vote.

Once voters know the details 25% felt the size was right, 24% wanted it increased, and only 12% felt it should be allowed to expire.  Again, do not see the overwhelming sentiment for increase.

Here you see that a bare majority of Davis voters support a county sales tax measure for public safety programs and a plurality just falling short of majority for health programs.  But that is not nearly enough for a county-wide tax to pass that would require a two-thirds vote and require Davis to make up for the lack of support in more conservative parts of the county.  Based on this, the county vote has very little chance.

Middle of the road voters are probably more indicative of the rest of the county and it fails among them in both public safety and health programs by about the same margin.

The bottom line here is that the school district is going to have to fight for a parcel tax increase, a county tax is DOA, and the city council is not a very popular body in Davis these days, but at least it’s not the state legislature.

—David M. Greenwald reporting