Vanguard Analysis – The school board race this year is even harder to judge than the City Council race was. In the City Council race, while there was one no brainer, we failed to call Brett Lee’s victory correctly.
However, as noted it is not a huge advantage. She also has a slight lead in the money race – again as we know from other campaigns, it’s not necessarily determinative but it’s a factor.
I have believed for a long time that the second seat will be a battle between incumbent Susan Lovenburg and Alan Fernandes. Bob Dunning has them about even.
Both Ms. Peterson and Mr. Fernandes are ahead on money, but only by about $4000 each. Not a huge advantage especially with Ms. Lovenburg’s five years on the board.
I’m going to break down endorsements into three categories – School Board, Council, and Supervisor. In my view this will show somewhat more clearly who is getting what backing.
Nancy Peterson is endorsed by Sheila Allen, Gina Daleiden, and Richard Harris on the School Board. Alan Fernandes is endorsed by Gina Daleiden and Richard Harris. Susan Lovenburg is endorsed by Sheilla Allen and Richard Harris.
So Richard Harris who is running Measure E decided to endorse all three, and Tim Taylor endorsed no one.
Of the Supervisors Alan Fernandes was endorsed by both Jim Provena and Don Saylor (also both former board members). Nancy Peterson was endorsed by Jim Provenza and Susan Lovenburg was endorsed by Don Saylor.
City Council endorsements: Alan Fernandes supported by Joe Krovoza, Dan Wolk, Lucas Frerichs and Rochelle Swanson. Nancy Peterson endorsed by Joe Krovoza, Dan Wolk Brett Lee, and Rochelle Swanson. Susan Lovenburg endorsed by Lucas Frerichs and Dan Wolk (who endorsed three).
Former Councilmembers: Alan Fernandez is endorsed by Ruth Asmundson, Nancy Peterson is endorsed by Ann Evans, Jerry Keneko, Ken Wagstaff, Mike Harrington, and Stephen Souza. Susan Lovenburg is endorsed by Ruth Asmundson, Ann Evans, and Stephen Souza.
Finally, I think while this race comes down to those three that it is a mistake to write off either Claire Sherman or Jose Granda.
In our view, Claire Sherman made a mistake in not taking campaign donations – it was a signal to some that she was not a serious candidate. However, we are impressed with her efforts on the social networking front and think she has made good strides with free media usage.
Jose Granda is despite his best efforts a one-issue candidate, it’s a minority position in this town with only perhaps 25 to 33 percent support, but if that support coalesces around Dr. Granda as the only candidate against Measure E, he could be a factor.
However, in a five person, two spot race, that’s mathematically should not be enough to finish in the top 2, but it is enough that the claims that he was a 10,000 to 1 longshot (while obviously facetious) are probably not founded.
—David M. Greenwald reporting