At the close of the day on Friday, Charlie Schaupp’s lead over Bill Dodd grew to nearly 500 votes while Bill Dodd’s lead over Dan Wolk shrunk to 500 votes. However, those numbers more reflect what counties processed additional ballots.
The Vanguard has now analyzed the race and has additional projections to make.
As of the end of the day on Friday, Colusa had completed their count. Lake County had 6053 votes to count, Napa had 8600, Solano 1790, Sonoma had 28,015 and Yolo County had 7182.
Only 14.9% of Sonoma County is in the district while 75.7% of Yolo County is in the district.
The Vanguard’s analysis relied on several assumptions.
First, we assumed proportionality in the remaining ballots. This has two key implications. The first is that to estimate the ballots in Sonoma and Yolo County, we assumed that the district representation was proportional. Therefore, we estimate the votes to be counted in Sonoma as 4174 and in Yolo at 5437.
In addition, we assume that the proportions of votes throughout the district are roughly proportional within each county.
Third, we use the percentage of the vote share already cast in each county to estimate the projected vote totals.
This analysis shows that Bill Dodd finishes second by 221 votes to Charlie Schaupp and that Dan Wolk finishes about 2000 votes off the pace.
However, this analysis has some flaws, as well. It assumes that the voter population would be an average between the early votes and election day votes. Unlike in the city council race, we do not have the data that would separate election day votes from early votes.
This scenario projects Dan Wolk to receive about 23.7% of the additional vote, whereas at present he has 24.6% of the additional vote. This suggests that the remaining votes to be counted are in areas that are less advantageous for Dan Wolk and more advantageous for Bill Dodd and Charlie Schaupp.
However, because of the large number of remaining votes, for Dan Wolk to win in this scenario he will have to receive roughly 28.3 percent of the remaining vote. This is a sizable increase for Dan Wolk, but not completely out of the question.
The main problem that Dan Wolk faces is that he is only ahead in Yolo County, where he finished first. Dan Wolk only finished ahead of Bill Dodd in one other county – Solano, with a relatively small population. And he didn’t finish ahead of Charlie Schaupp in any county other than Yolo County.
Yolo County only accounts for 20.8 percent of the ballots that remain to be counted, if our estimate is fairly accurate.
—David M. Greenwald reporting