Wolk Down by 1100 Votes as Napa and Yolo Come In

Dan Wolk waiting for results at his party at Tres Hermanas Restaurant in Davis
Dan Wolk waiting for results at his party at Tres Hermanas Restaurant in Davis

On Wednesday, the Assembly Race dynamics changed in a dramatic way as the two largest counties – Napa and Yolo Counties – completed the bulk of their uncounted ballots.

The results were dramatic as Bill Dodd initially surged to a huge lead when the Napa votes came in, and that lead remained after Yolo County came in (where Bill Dodd performed poorly compared to Dan Wolk and Charlie Schaupp).

At the end of the day, Bill Dodd was in first place by 669 votes over Charlie Schaupp, and Dan Wolk trailed Mr. Schaupp for second place by 1126 votes.

Matt Reilly from the Dodd campaign first sent out an email at 3:40 pm indicating that Napa County had released their tally of 9505 ballots which showed “an additional 4187 votes for Bill Dodd compared with 2279 for Charlie Schaupp and 1677 for Dan Wolk.”

Mr. Reilly wrote, “This effectively gives Dodd a lead of 3010 votes over Wolk and 1419 ahead of Schaupp. Napa Registrar John Tuteur estimates another 1,000 ballots remain in Napa to count. Officials in Yolo, Sonoma, and Lake still have several thousand AD 4 [Assembly District 4] ballots to count, but the ratios between the candidates to this point indicate that Schaupp will finish 2nd and Wolk 3rd.”

An hour later he wrote, “Shortly after I sent off the prior email Yolo released its update…it reinforces exactly what I sent you earlier. Yolo counted 5158 ballots in AD 4 (the remainder of their 5828 they said were in their possession were outside AD 4). This was Wolk’s only hope to stay in the race.”

He adds, “That leaves Schaupp and Wolk with only about 100 provisional Solano ballots and 1078 provisional Yolo ballots in counties where they bested Dodd (Schaupp also leads Dodd by 3.9% in Lake County, but there are only 5263 ballots).”

Dan Wolk texted the Vanguard late on Wednesday that his campaign had no comment at this time.

The Vanguard’s analysis this week suggested Charlie Schaupp would finish first and Bill Dodd a close second with Dan Wolk about 1000 ballots off. The Dodd campaign now believes that Bill Dodd will prevail and finish first.

We know that Colusa County has completed its count. We are still waiting on about 6053 ballots in Lake County where Charlie Schaupp finished first with 28.3 percent of the vote, Bill Dodd finished second with 24.4 percent of the vote and Dan Wolk third with 23.1 percent of the vote.

Solano County completed its regular count but still has 1140 provisional ballots remaining. We are also waiting on between 4000 and 5000 ballots in Sonoma County (which is an estimate) where Bill Dodd finished first with 26% following by Charlie Schaupp (25 percent) and Dan Wolk who finished fourth with 21.8 percent.

Based on these numbers, and where the remaining ballots are, Dan Wolk will be unlikely to catch Charlie Schaupp.

California League of Conservation Voters Regrets IE Campaign in Fourth Assembly District

In the meantime, the California League of Conservation Voters told the Contra Costa Times that they regretted supporting Joe Krovoza over Dan Wolk.

“The California League of Conservation Voters, the political muscle of environmental groups in the state, this spring waged an independent-expenditure campaign in just one race, an overwhelmingly Democratic Assembly district that runs from the liberal Napa Valley to the even more liberal university town of Davis,” the paper reported.

They spent $50,000 “to promote one Democrat who it felt had a slightly more established environmental record than one of the others. The CLCV-backed candidate finished fourth, but drew enough votes to knock out the other candidate who environmentalists liked a little bit less.”

The paper notes, “The result, barring a dramatic turnaround in the late vote-counting, will be a race in the fall between two pro-business candidates who both oppose key policies supported by environmentalists. Either way, environmentalists will lose.”

David Allgood, political director of the League of Conservation Voters, told the paper that “his group made a miscalculation. He acknowledged that the group, relying on no polling data, backed the weakest of the major candidates.”

“It blew up in our face,” he said. “In 20/20 hindsight, maybe we would do it differently.'”

—David M. Greenwald reporting

About The Author

David Greenwald is the founder, editor, and executive director of the Davis Vanguard. He founded the Vanguard in 2006. David Greenwald moved to Davis in 1996 to attend Graduate School at UC Davis in Political Science. He lives in South Davis with his wife Cecilia Escamilla Greenwald and three children.

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14 Comments

  1. Rich RifkinWDE 73

    The only real surprise to me in this vote count is how well–or rather, how not terribly–Dustin Call (a social moderate) did. He received 5.7 percent of the vote, almost all of which I thought would go to Charlie Schaupp (who is more conservative and in that sense more mainstream Republican). Ultimately, Call’s success does not matter, as Schaupp made the final two, and in all likelihood Charlie will lose to Dodd in November (based on the huge Democratic registration advantage in AD4).

    So why did Call get so many primary votes? I don’t really know. But here is my guess: Many Republican voters did not know anything about Call or Schaupp. Neither one really campaigned the way the three Democrats did. There was no IE campaign for Schaupp or Call. So some of those who believe in the Republican Party and show up on election day, but did not know a distinction between Schaupp and Call picked Call.

    What I don’t think happened is that Call won the votes of socially moderate Republicans who favored his views over Schaupp’s. I think, to the extent there are such Republicans, they voted for Bill Dodd.

    1. Davis Progressive

      i don’t think 5.7 is anything other than terrible, but he wasn’t a serious candidate. 5.7 is probably the error term that people get when voters randomly fill out their ballots.

      1. Rich RifkinWDE 73

        Error rate is not that high unless there is something weird about the ballot structure which somehow confuses a lot of voters into mistakenly checking one box when they intended another.

        Typically, an unknown candidate, who does not campaign for an Assembly seat and faces an opponent who is known and puts in a full effort, will top out at about 1%. The exception to this would be if there is some reason for a protest vote. For example, you might have an incumbent who is known and popular, but cast a vote which some in his district disliked. Those voters might then register a protest by checking the box of the unknown guy. However, that does not apply with Republicans in AD4, having no incumbent.

    2. Charlie_Schaupp

      Rich….Dustin Call did have IE expendatures supporting him which explains the percentage he received. Charles Munger Jr, GOP political activist and billionaire, paid Call’s filing fee and had his PAC –SPIRIT OF DEMOCRACY CALIFORNIA, 1346379– spend about $9K on 3 slate mailers. Munger was using Mr. Call to gain control of the CRP Convention delgates that the GOP candidate would earn. I actually received one of the slate mailers. Hope that helps explain the situation. Semper Fi, Charlie

      1. Rich RifkinWDE 73

        I guess, because I am a “decline to state,” none of the Munger mailers came to my home, so I did not know this happened. Thanks for filling me in, Charlie.

        It’s interesting, if that is what explains the 5.7%, because if it had been just a wee bit higher, then the runoff would have been between Dodd and Wolk, and I suspect Wolk would be the favorite in that race.

        1. Charlie_Schaupp

          Rich, Yes, I agree that Call could have thown the election and kept the GOP out of the top two. And one of the reasons I kept my spending lower than I expected. The CRP has some internal problems….I, and others, are trying to ‘get it fixed’…but there is an internal fight. BTW Charles Munger Jr is the fellow that pushed for the ‘Top Two’ system. He was also the force behind that Prop. and many in the GOP and other minor parties are not happy with him. He is also one of the main forces behind Neel Kashkari.

  2. South of Davis

    Charlie wrote:

    > Dustin Call did have IE expendatures supporting him which explains the
    > percentage he received. Charles Munger Jr, GOP political activist and
    > billionaire, paid Call’s filing fee

    I have been wondering who paid for Call to run and figured it was a Democrat trying to make sure Charlie did not make the “top two”.

    Charles Jr. (who lives in the Palo Alto house a friend of mine grew up in) is a “political activist” (and “Stanford physicist”) but he is not a “billionaire” (his Dad Charles Sr. that is Warren Buffett’s long term partner “is” a “billionaire”).

    Even when Charlie Sr. dies he won’t be a “billionaire” but I’m sure he won’t have to worry about where his next meal is coming from…

    1. Charlie_Schaupp

      South of Davis…I don’t if Charles Munger is a ‘billionaire’ or not…but he spend $$$ millons in GOP circles (perhaps only his investment bankers know for sure..ehy?). I was told both he and his sister Molly Munger are…and Molly, I have been told, does the same, just from a more progressive position. Semper Fi, Charlie

  3. Charlie_Schaupp

    Gents…If you really want to read up on the ‘infighting’ within the CRP/GOP these two sights below can be very informative. The first is the Munger Games (about Charles Munger Jr) and the second is Right On Daily Blog (By Arron Park..who usually ‘nails it’ on what is going on behind the scenes within the California Republican Party). In the Munger Games you might also note the actions of Harmeet Dhillon, the current CRP Vice Chair and her law suit threats. It might open some eyes …ya might say. Charlie

    http://www.mungergames.net/

    http://www.rightondaily.com/

    1. South of Davis

      Charlie wrote:

      > Gents…If you really want to read up on the ‘infighting’ within the CRP/GOP
      > these two sights below can be very informative.

      Thanks for the links. I may not agree with everything Munger is doing, but as a fiscal conservative (who makes enough to get taxed heavily but not enough to buy tax breaks) I just hope that the GOP leadership in California realizes that we don’t have the voter base that elected Regan Governor (and President) any more. Every day the majority of people who die of old age agreed with the GOP and the majority of new registered voters do not agree with them. If the GOP does not drop the God, Gays and Guns campaign themes we will be stuck in a one party state where each year the elected officials just keep raising taxes to pay off their union friends (and buy the votes of the poor with food stamps, Obamaphones and free housing)…

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