One big question after Tuesday night is how many votes remain to be counted in Yolo County. Just under 12,000 votes were counted in the city of Davis for Measure Q and just under 13,000 in the DJUSD race in Measure G. Looking back at the 2016 primary, the actual number voted was just under 23,000. That either means there could be around 10,000 more votes to be counted, or turnout was lower than four years ago.
For Measure Q that won’t matter. The sales tax renewal passed by a whopping 9449 to 2322, or 80-20 percent. That will make the sales tax permanent.
It may ignite questions about whether they undershot with the tax, but Dan Carson in an election evening interview told the Vanguard that they could not afford to risk the tax, and that they put forth a professional campaign effort.
Meanwhile, in the county supervisor race for the 4th Supervisorial District, three-term incumbent Jim Provenza has a healthy lead over second place Linda Deos, but the Election Day tally has brought his overall total to less than the 50 percent threshold—down from just over 51 percent with the pre-election day votes.
If that holds, he would have to face Linda Deos in a November run off. David Abramson pulled in 984 votes, good for 13.79 and just enough to force the runoff, potentially.
The 5th Supervisorial Race up in Woodland and rural parts of the county proved very interesting and is clearly too close to call. At the end of the night, longtime incumbent Duane Chamberlain was ahead of Woodland Councilmember and former Mayor Angel Barajas by a scant 93 votes, as his challenge has proven much more robust than Art Pimentel’s from four years ago.
We will have to see what happens with the late vote count, as that one is close enough to swing on such numbers.
Finally, the DJUSD parcel tax received 65 percent of the vote so far. That is shy of the two-thirds needed for passage. It also ends up being right at what the measure polled at last year, despite what has been described as a large effort to mobilize their vote.
If that vote holds, it could mean that the district either has to forgo teacher salary increases or has to make large across-the-board cuts. It is a strong message potentially to the school district that they may have reached the end of the community’s willingness to support parcel taxes at a two-thirds votes.
The key question is whether that result will hold up.
Our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that, more likely than not, the final vote will fall just short.
The initial numbers were that yes had just 63.9 percent in the early voting. By the end of the election night, the percentage rose slightly to 65.1 percent, and still probably 1.6 points short of the two-thirds needed.
The good news for those supporting the measure is that the election day ballots came in at 66.9 percent or just over the two-thirds threshold. The bad news is that looks like it will be insufficient to put the measure over the top.
Generally, the late vote-by-mail ballots resemble election day figures rather than the early ballots. Assuming that there are 10,000 votes left and that they come in at the same 66.9 percent, that would push the vote to 65.9 percent—just shy of the two-thirds needed.
In fact, if that is the final vote result, it would have taken only an additional 188 yes votes to clear the two-thirds threshold.
Assuming again 10,000 remaining votes, by our calculation, it would take a 68.8 percent yes vote percentage in those, in order to push the ballot measure to victory.
Our view is that is not exactly impossible—other tax measures have cleared that number. But we view it as unlikely. That would be two full percentage points higher than the election day vote percentage. While not impossible, it seems like a lot of ground to make up.
—David M. Greenwald reporting