My View: Headed for Another Lockdown

By David M. Greenwald

I caught a story on KCRA where a salon owner was interviewed about the likelihood that her salon will have to shut down again.

“I feel defeated. I feel lost. I feel scared,” the owner said. “Not only do I have myself and my family to think about, but I have all of the people that work for me, work in my salon, to consider.”

While I sympathize with small business owners, from Wednesday to Friday in the US, nearly 9000 people died of COVID.  I can imagine that their loved ones felt lost, scared and ultimately defeated.

Even more so because we know how to slow the spread of this disease, and if people would simply take the reasonable precautions of wearing a mask, social distancing, and avoiding social interaction we could contain the spread of this disease until we get the vaccine—which is just around the corner.

Instead, we are headed for something potentially catastrophic.  Deaths are now at a record high level.  And while people can argue that the actual death rate is relatively low, that analysis misses the law of high numbers.  When you are approaching 15 million cases, even a low death rate will produce a lot of deaths.  People’s loved ones, family members, people that we cannot bring back.

But while many have focused on death—and understandably so—there is little we know about the long term health implications of this.

And now the looming crisis is the lack of ICU space.  That is what the current round of stay-at-home orders is based on.  Governor Newsom’s order takes effect today.  There is controversy here in that they are doing it by region, rather than county.  And so some counties relatively lightly hit will have to lock down even though they have excess capacity at the ICUs.

Regional stay-at-home orders “will require Californians to stay at home as much as possible, close operations for certain sectors and require 100 percent masking and physical distancing in all others.

“Residents are required to stay at home as much as possible and minimize mixing to reduce unnecessary exposure, while still being able to do important things like go to the doctor, buy groceries, pick up take out, go on a hike, or worship outdoors. K-12 schools that are already open can remain open and retailers can operate indoors at no more than 20 percent capacity to reduce exposure risk.”

Greater Sacramento: Alpine, Amador, Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Plumas, Sacramento, Sierra, Sutter, Yolo, Yuba.

Regions will remain in the Regional Stay at Home Order status for at least three weeks once triggered.

Counties are eligible to come off the Regional Stay at Home Order after three weeks if their hospital ICU capacity projected four weeks out reaches 15 percent.

“We are at a tipping point in our fight against the virus and we need to take decisive action now to prevent California’s hospital system from being overwhelmed in the coming weeks,” said Governor Newsom.

He said, “We know what a struggle this pandemic has been for so many California families, but our actions have saved countless lives,” said Dr. Mark Ghaly, California Health and Human Services Secretary. “This targeted action will preserve vital ICU beds for people who need them — whether they’re COVID-19 patients or someone who has suffered a heart attack or a stroke.”

As of Thursday here was the ICU capacity in the five regions:

  • Northern California 18.6%
  • Bay Area 25.3%
  • Greater Sacramento 22.2%
  • San Joaquin Valley 19.7%
  • Southern California 20.6%

One report calculated that Greater Sacramento would hit 15 percent within the week.  The danger of low ICU capacity is that there would be a lack of resources to treat people in need of potentially life-saving medical attention.  That presents a danger not just to people with severe cases of COVID but also other potentially serious health ailments.

In the end this has been a failure of our public health system—but particularly at the top—to contain the virus.  Defenders of the president have pointed to two policies—one, his shutdown of the borders and banning travel from China in late January and second, the prioritization of research to push forward a vaccine in record time.

But research that emerged this week, in a study published on Monday, found evidence that COVID was in the US as early as mid-December of 2019.

The study, published on Monday, examined blood donations to the Red Cross in nine states and found evidence of the virus in 106 of 7,389 collected between December 13, 2019, and January 17, 2020.

That means COVID was already in the US at this point and shutting down the border had little effect.

You can debate of course over the role the administration may or may not have played in the development of the vaccine, but the fact remains that the president has minimized in public statements the severity of this crisis, he shirked the use of masks—and even ridiculed them, and hosted large events where people were not wearing masks.

Moreover, in the time since the election, he has done next to nothing about COVID even as he continues to throw out wild allegations of election fraud.

This week, for the first time, the CDC recommended the “universal use of face masks” as a key step to fighting the coronavirus pandemic, warning the U.S. has “entered a phase of high-level transmission.”

They recommend that state and local levels “issue policies or directives mandating universal use of face masks in indoor (nonhousehold) settings” as one strategy to combat the virus.

On Thursday, Senator Mitt Romney, a critic of the president called the president’s rhetoric on the COVID a “great human tragedy.

“Well, this hasn’t been the focus of his rhetoric, apparently, and I think it’s a great human tragedy, without question,” Senator Romney said.

The senator added that the “extraordinary loss of life is heartbreaking—and in some respects unnecessary.”

And so here we go again, headed back into another lockdown.  One segment of society is complaining about the loss of economic livelihood while another laments the unnecessary continued loss of human life.

—David M. Greenwald reporting


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About The Author

David Greenwald is the founder, editor, and executive director of the Davis Vanguard. He founded the Vanguard in 2006. David Greenwald moved to Davis in 1996 to attend Graduate School at UC Davis in Political Science. He lives in South Davis with his wife Cecilia Escamilla Greenwald and three children.

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61 Comments

  1. Keith Olsen

    That is what the current round of stay-at-home orders is based on.  Governor Newsom’s order takes effect today.

    Does Newsom’s order apply to the French Laundry Restaurant in Napa?

     

      1. Alan Miller

        Other than you chose to criticize Trump but not Newsom, or Pelosi, or Feinstein . . . I could go on – both with Republican and Democratic hypocrites.  Just because Trump is the worst flaming türd doesn’t mean the others are forgiven due to their party affiliation.  Just sayin’

        1. David Greenwald

          But I viewed one as having policy implications – and setting the tone of defiance for a large swath of the population – while the other was rank hypocrisy, but it lacked clear policy implications. Not defending Newsom or Breed at all – but the damage is personal, not policywise.

        2. Tia Will

          Forgiveness is due not on the basis of party affiliation. But one might consider based on the admission of guilt and apology. Newsom has done both. When has Trump apologized for anything?

        3. Keith Olsen

          Not defending Newsom or Breed at all

          Breed?  Funny that you mention Breed when my London Breed post got deleted.

          But one might consider based on the admission of guilt and apology. Newsom has done both. 

          But doesn’t it ring hollow for Newsom to now tell others they have to shut down when he doesn’t even follow his own guidelines?  Let them eat cake.

          1. Don Shor

            Keith, you supported Trump. His messaging and poor modeling of behavior is so much more egregiously bad than any of the other politicians that you have now cited repeatedly, that your posts on this topic are ridiculously hypocritical. He has millions of followers who believe his outright lies. I don’t know if you believe him or just think it’s ok to have a president who has been so dangerously ignorant and harmful. He has done serious damage to the pandemic messaging. I suggest your ‘both sides’ and ‘they’re hypocrites’ commenting is not just wearing thin, it is threadbare and devoid of actual meaningful content at this point.

          2. David Greenwald

            “But doesn’t it ring hollow for Newsom to now tell others they have to shut down when he doesn’t even follow his own guidelines?”

            Only if you believe he’s wrong. Is he in your opinion? And if so, what is your recommendation instead?

        4. Keith Olsen

          Your opinion and you’re entitled to it just as I’m allowed mine, but Newsom is dictating California’s COVID policy, not Trump.  So is Newsom responsible for all the California COVID deaths?

        5. Keith Olsen

          I suggest your ‘both sides’ and ‘they’re hypocrites’ commenting is not just wearing thin

          Really, first you bash Trump then tell me my both sides argument is wearing thin?

          1. Don Shor

            Really, first you bash Trump then tell me my both sides argument is wearing thin?

            You do understand that for some things there are not equally valid “sides”?

        6. Ron Oertel

          Your opinion and you’re entitled to it just as I’m allowed mine.

          Yeap.

          Besides which, anyone taking medical advise from a blog (or a politician’s “example”) does so at their own risk.  😉

           

          1. David Greenwald

            “Besides which, anyone taking medical advise from a blog (or a politician’s “example”) does so at their own risk. ”

            Who is giving medical advice?

        7. Ron Oertel

          No one, I hope.

          Nor is anyone taking any cues from my spelling, I hope.  😉

          For what it’s worth, I see a fundamental difference between Trump’s downplaying of the virus, vs. others who ignore their own “advice” (implementation of regulations).

          When I saw that video of Trump removing his mask on the White House steps, I imagined the “Rocky” theme playing in the background (from his perspective).

          Nor did I understand holding up the bible outside a church, after clearing-away protesters.

          I guess he views those actions as “leadership”.

        8. Ron Oertel

          But the reason that I responded is because I sometimes find Don’s responses to Keith to be rather aggressive, for some reason. Almost as if Keith should be “shut down” for his comments.

          And since no one should be taking medical advice on here, I don’t understand the reason for such responses.

        9. Alan Miller

          Y’all are missing the point.  Just because you have a giant warthog to compare other warthogs too doesn’t mean the other warthogs get a free pass for bad behavior.  Why so focused on “oh yeah, but Trump is really, really, really, really, really, really, really bad”.  I’m talking about what Newsom did was horrific – just because we have a warthog wraped in a türd wrapped in a diaper wrapped in féces in D.C. doesn’t change what is going on in Sacramento or Napa – so please – stop it!

  2. Don Shor

    It’s not a shutdown “order” because it has no enforcement.

    Newsom gave a good, informative press conference. His ability to do a 40-minute presentation clearly and without any mistakes was impressive. The order is a bit confusing, but all it seems to do it restrict the same businesses that were restricted before, enhance some limits on retail, and state (but not enforce) a ‘statewide travel ban on non-essential travel’. I look forward to the freeway checkpoints and airport screening.

    The county is not doing contact tracing on infections that are reported after they are a few days old. They are not really doing contact tracing that gives us any information about the sources of infection. They are gathering data about the areas and demographic groups that have higher rates of infection, but they are not using that information in any redirection of resources or targeted educational outreach or enhanced contact tracing.

    If you see a party in full swing in Davis, what are you supposed to do about it?

  3. Don Shor

    Here is the Yolo County order, effective tomorrow:

    Gatherings: gathering of any size are strongly discouraged. Only outdoor gatherings are permitted.
    Restaurants and wineries: may remain open outdoors but those seated at a single table are limited to household members only. Tables must be a minimum of 6 feet apart.
    Indoor retail establishments: may remain open but must operate at 20% capacity with access strictly metered to ensure compliance. This includes all retail, including grocery stores.
    Gyms and fitness centers: may remain open outdoors only but face coverings are required at all times with the exception of aquatic activities such as swimming.
    Sports (including youth, adult recreational, collegiate and professional): limited to drills and conditioning only, with physical distancing, and only outdoors. All competitive games, scrimmages, and similar activities that do not allow for physical distancing are not allowed.
    Stay home as much as possible: activities that bring individuals into contact with people who are not household members pose a risk of virus transmission, even if masks are worn.
    “Yolo County hospitals are running out of ICU beds,” said Yolo County Public Health Officer Dr. Aimee Sisson. “If more people become infected with coronavirus, we are facing the reality of not having enough resources to adequately treat them. We have to act now to slow the spread by limiting high-risk activities that bring people close together, especially when they aren’t wearing masks. Even where activities are still permitted, individuals should minimize exposure to people they don’t live with. For example, restaurants will stay open outdoors, but only people who live together should dine together. COVID risk is higher now than it has ever been, so people must reconsider their activities in light of this changing context.”
    To help mitigate the spread of COVID-19, residents are advised to follow these health practices:
    If you must gather, the restrictions listed for the State’s purple tier apply: outdoor only, no more than 3 households, no more than 16 people, no more than 2 hours, wear masks and maintain appropriate distance.
    Stay home if you have symptoms of illness or are high-risk
    Wear a face covering
    Maintain at least six feet of physical distance from those not in your household
    Wash your hands with soap and water or use hand sanitizer regularly
    To read the complete Health Order with amendments, visit: https://www.yolocounty.org/Home/ShowDocument?id=67466. For additional information about the State’s new Regional Stay Home order, visit: https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/. For more information about Yolo County’s Roadmap to Recovery and see which businesses are currently open, visit: http://www.yolocounty.org/coronavirus-roadmap. Residents can call Yolo 2-1-1 for resource information. Follow Yolo County on Facebook at:

    or Twitter at: https://twitter.com/YoloCountyCA.

  4. Jim Frame

    If you see a party in full swing in Davis, what are you supposed to do about it?

    Report it.  If it’s college students, report it to the Office of Student Support and Judicial Affairs.  If non-students, report to Davis PD.

    We live next door to an informal sorority annex.  The girls are generally good neighbors, but earlier this fall they had lots of visitors, and would host a casual party every month or so, mostly in the afternoon to early evening.  Sometimes dozens of kids, no masks, no distancing.  At first I just shook my head and ignored it, but the last time it happened — a month or so ago? — I contacted OSSJA.  About an hour later a Davis PD officer was at my door asking for details.  The party had already ended, but the officer was gathering info for a report.  Since then:  no visitors and no parties.

    1. Alan Miller

      Report it?  Ha!   This is going on all over the country.  Reporting a few parties in Davis isn’t going to do squat.  The problem is the attitude of people and the messaging of the press and politicians.  It’s too late, we’re doomed.

      In the last few weeks I’ve heard reports that indoor social gatherings actually aren’t a major spreader – yet recently we were told they were the main spreader.  In El Paso, contact tracing revealed that most of the infection was from people shopping at large stores — which I thought was supposed to be safe if people adhered to the rules.  At CVS last week, guy walked around store with chin diaper (mask not covering nose).  Employees did nothing about it – 4th time out of five visits there that employee or customer not wearing masks – Rite Aid even worse the one time I visited there.

      In the LA Times article on Newsom’s order, it said the lockdown didn’t apply to religious gatherings or political protests – because those were protected.  Say WHAT ?!!!  The laws of physics and spread of infection don’t apply because you label a gathering a certain way?  Have we all lost our collective F-ing minds?

      We’re doomed because as a society, we are insane.

      Meanwhile, I watched a press conference from the head of one of the Australian states last week.  They gave a two-hour press conference on a node of infection.  It was all about ONE FAMILY that had a gathering and spread it to a couple of other families.  One incident!  Look at the world-o-meter stats for Australia.  Almost no infections, deaths of late — all flattened out.  Yes they have the advantage of being an island, but none the less they are doing something right and we are doing everything very, very wrong.  Maybe we should look at success stories and copy them instead of being stupid Americans.

  5. Tia Will

    Reporting a few parties in Davis isn’t going to do squat.”

    Actually, it will. Will it fix the problem nationally? Of course not. Does it have the potential to save lives here in Davis and Yolo County? Absolutely! In my mind, that is worth doing.

    1. Alan Miller

      What does that look like, really?  I mean, I’ve not heard of a single incident of somebody reporting a party in Davis for Covid-19 practices – sans the frat on Russel, and they were cleared of wrongdoing.  I’m not saying these gatherings don’t happen – I mean there’s a place right over my back fence that’s been having parties all summer.  I don’t peek over the fence to judge their mask wearing and distancing, but given they are young I imagine it is zero – but only imagine.  So what happens if I call the Covid-19 police?  Do they come by and site everyone?  Will they be fined/jailed?  Will they change their behavior generally due to such a visit ?

      I can’t even get an employee to lift a finger at CVS (CVS = CoronaVirus Superspreader) when they have a customer in the store not wearing a mask properly.  Should I call the Sheriff when they happens?  Have the store employee cited since the offender will be long gone?  I’m a lot more concerned about an idiot at CVS where older people are than I am about a college party.  What about when I was in Woodland early in the pandemic at a store on main street and the back door opened to the center hall and then the door behind opened to reveal a giant party with a Mariachi band and hundreds of people – should I have called the police?

      My point is – does anyone know of a single local case of someone calling the police for Covid violations, and what the outcome of that call was?

      1. Keith Olsen

        My point is – does anyone know of a single local case of someone calling the police for Covid violations, and what the outcome of that call was?

        If Davis defunds the police will COVID violations be handled by a social worker?

      2. Tia Will

        Alan

        The answer is yes.

        I suspect you have not heard of any cases because you do not attend either the Health Council or Board of Supervisor meetings. There have been a number of case reports of inappropriate gatherings. The protocol is for the relevant agency, either the university oversight or the Davis police to be notified and investigate. As with every other reported instance, the protocol is for education first, then a warning, and then progressive fines for further episodes. I am not sure if the university policy involves academic discipline or not.

        My answer to your individual question is also “yes”. If citizens are aware of inappropriate gatherings, I believe it is our responsibility to call the relevant agency.

  6. Don Shor

    In my opinion it needs to be possible to report anonymously to the health department, with that agency responsible 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, to forward the complaint to the police department. People are unlikely to turn in their neighbors unless they can do it without creating a public record identifying them as the complainants.

  7. Tia Will

    I am going to stick my neck out here with an opinion that varies from that of those health officials charged with informing the public. I am not an infectious disease expert, a virologist, or an epidemiologist. But my expertise did extend to the prevention of disease, one patient at a time for 30+ years. The point of primary prevention is to keep the patient from encountering the disease in the first place. It is always the most effective and cost-effective strategy.  Always.

    I believe we are focusing on the wrong thing. By stressing “flattening the curve” and capacity of ICU beds we have taken a side issue and made it our near-exclusive focus and goal. This was counter-productive for several reasons.

    1. The current and future overriding issue is not ICU beds, nor even all hospital beds. It is trained expert staff to care for the patients in those beds. During the spring surge, we saw general surgeons, orthopedists, and other specialists being asked to act as ICU specialists and ER doctors. Inefficient, ineffective, and with ripples throughout all areas of health care. Health care workers in many parts of the country are simply exhausted and tired of being sacrificial lambs for a population that is entirely oblivious to the harm they are doing.

    2. The basic goal is wrong. The primary goal should never have been, and should not be now keeping hospital beds open nor should that be our measure of success. The primary goal should have and should in the future be focused on the prevention of community spread. If we continue to focus on ICU beds & lockdowns based on their number, we will continue to see the swing of temporary disease suppression followed by its rise when the rules are relaxed. We have seen it twice now in our own area. How many times will we have to repeat before we realize this is not the answer?

    The whole scenario is tragic. Yes, because of the death toll, and the economic toll. But even more so because we now know how to control the spread via minimal small gatherings, socially distancing, masking when we must go out, and frequent hand sanitation. These steps are not difficult. We are simply choosing not to follow them. I am sad, but I am also incredibly angry because it is not as though our leaders at many different levels were not told this would be the outcome. They were told repeatedly and yet chose to walk into the trap of binary thinking. They looked at only two options. We are either open with a rapid return to “normal” even if deadly, or we are in “lockdown” with a massive failure to conceive that there might be a safer middle route.

     

    1. Alan Miller

      TW, I agree with everything you said above.  Especially:

      Health care workers in many parts of the country are simply exhausted and tired of being sacrificial lambs for a population that is entirely oblivious to the harm they are doing.

      Health care workers, yes, and especially.  But I think those of us who are doing our part feel the same way.

      My only issue with the “turn in neighbors” discussion is I don’t think it’s a practical way to make a difference.  It isn’t going to change the behavior of people who don’t believe or don’t care – it’s not like enforcing traffic laws.  Again, is there a single instance of this happening locally?  And what was the outcome?

      1. Tia Will

        Alan

        I fundamentally disagree with your assertion that neighbors reporting events will not have an impact. There is a graded response to these occurrences: education, warning, escalating fines. Of course, this system will not work if neighbors will not report. But if we did consistently, it could make a real difference. Why do you think moving vehicle violations, or parking illegally for that matter is fined? If it made no difference to behavior or to the city coffers, would we still be doing it?

        1. Alan Miller

          I don’t think reporting neighbors of Covid-19 violations is happening and I don’t think there’s a practical method of enforcement.  I’m not even sure the police would answer the call.  Again, is there a single documented instance of someone turning someone in for a Covid-19 violation in Davis?  If this isn’t happening, what good is calling for more people to do it?  And again, isn’t the person at CVS without a mask more of a threat to vulnerable groups?  It’s not like people with diabetes and cancer are going to frat parties — and the police aren’t responding to CVS mask violations and it happens all the time.

          This kind of reminds me of the thinking of people who have been writing into the Davis Enterprise for the last 40 years complaining about bicyclists blowing through stop signs and not riding with lights at night, and demanding police enforce this.  Yet 40 years later, the “problem” is the same.  If the police could actually make a difference, it would have happened already.  Instead, the bicycle officer assigned to downtown has been “defunded” (ironically).  So there’s virtually no bicycle enforcement at all.  My guess, In the Year 2525 (if man is still alive, if woman can survive) we my find that bicycles are still blowing through stop signs and not using lights.

        2. Ron Oertel

          Yet 40 years later, the “problem” is the same. 

          The only thing that ever changes is that the folks who used to blow through stop signs themselves (“yesterday”) eventually become the folks who complain about others doing so (“tomorrow”).

          While uttering the same type of thing that’s always been attributed to “kids these days”. 😉

          Granted, there’s always been some who are more aggressive than others – even within their cohort.

  8. Dave Hart

    Here is what several hundred epidemiologists say about how they live their lives during Covid:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/04/upshot/epidemiologists-virus-survey-.html

  9. Tia Will

    But doesn’t it ring hollow for Newsom to now tell others they have to shut down when he doesn’t even follow his own guidelines?  Let them eat cake.”

    It rings hollow only if one is more invested in placing blame than they are considering the truth behind the need to adopt the necessary behaviors being advocated.

    As for the Breed situation, that is a matter of pure partisanship. I say that because although her behavior was not optimal, which she has admitted and apologized for, it was technically within the stated guidelines for that location at that time. There were 7 people present and it was held outdoors. However, it was not confined to one household which would have been optimal.

    I think the endless sniping about party affiliation is nothing but a distraction. We should all be staying well within the guidelines. I leave it to those who insist on maintaining a partisan divide to judge which party is adhering more closely to those guidelines.

     

  10. John Hobbs

    ” I don’t know if you believe him or just think it’s ok to have a president who has been so dangerously ignorant and harmful. He has done serious damage to the pandemic messaging. I suggest your ‘both sides’ and ‘they’re hypocrites’ commenting is not just wearing thin, it is threadbare and devoid of actual meaningful content at this point.”

    But you take no responsibility for empowering his insipid and hateful posts. We need to stop coddling those intent on dismantling our culture and instead call out their “beliefs” and anti-social behavior. The Vanguard is frequently guilty of allowing Keith’s, and others’ false equivalencies to go unchallenged, while censoring those who do challenge them.

    It is past time to call him (them) out for his (their) calumny and stupidity.

      1. John Hobbs

        Would have sworn I was addressing Don Shor, well-known commenter, but here’s the Moderator.

        OK Mr. Moderator, I realize civility always trumps truth in The Vanguard, but if you allow vacuous assertions, entirely false narratives and racist screeds to go virtually unchallenged but excise any content that you think might upset your readers, how are you not promoting the stupidity and hate?

        1. Don Shor

          Ron:

          I sometimes find Don’s responses to Keith to be rather aggressive, for some reason. Almost as if Keith should be “shut down” for his comments.

          John H:

          if you allow [blah blah blah] how are you not promoting the stupidity and hate?

          Got it.

  11. Bill Marshall

    When has Trump apologized for anything?

    No need… unlike Newsom, others listed, it appears he can either pardon himself, or resign a day early and have Pence do that… Nixon pretty much never apologized for anything…

    Wonder what Ivana or Marla heard from him, when he “moved on”… nah, that would be TMI!

    1. Alan Miller

      True Trump never apologizes; yet I am not moved by most politician’s so-called apologies.  Newsom’s was pathetic if you listen to it.

      In our culture, apologies are how we first teach our children to lie, while simultaneously telling them to be honest.  “Johnny, tell Patricia you are sorry” . . . “Iiiiiiiiiiwwwwmmmmm sooooooorrrriiiiiyyyyy!”.  Johnny is now a skilled liar.  Perhaps someday Johnny can be governor or president.

      1. Tia Will

        Alan

        Wow! What a cynical view of child-raising. If your canned version of instruction to simply “say sorry” were all parents ever did, I would agree. However, I believe that parents frequently do much more, such as explain to the misbehaving child exactly how their actions are harming others. Then follow that up with the kids discussing how the conflict could be better resolved the next time.

        I listened to Newsom’s apology and found it adequate if not eloquent. What exactly would you have needed to hear from him to not consider it “pathetic”?

        1. Ron Oertel

          However, I believe that parents frequently do much more, 

          “Say it like you mean it, Johnny”.  😉

          Some parents do more.

          Seems to me that empathy is something that (most) folks either figure out on their own (at some point), or they don’t.

          Prisons probably have a high percentage of people who lack empathy for others, perhaps regardless of how it’s explained to them. Maybe they’re too angry to do so.

  12. Ron Oertel

    Seems to me that regardless of what one thinks of the lockdown, you don’t hear much about the impacts on small businesses on here.  And when these small business owners see politicians (who ordered those lockdowns) dining with more-powerful interests, they become pissed-off.

    Bottom line is that it’s not really about what some guy at Nugget does, at this point. And frankly, I doubt that anything is going to change the course much at this point, before upcoming vaccinations become a factor.

    So maybe folks just need to calm down and hang tight for a few more months. As most have already been doing, who are concerned about it.

    https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Bay-Area-stay-at-home-lockdown-small-business-new-15778317.php?IPID=SFGate-HP-CP-Spotlight

     

      1. Ron Oertel

        I previously saw (and posted?) an article which showed that (plant) nurseries had a booming business, as a result of the virus.

        Home improvement stores, as well (e.g., Home Depot, perhaps ACE).

        I suspect that blogs are pretty much unaffected, as that can be done from home.

        Let’s hear from restaurant owners, etc. (Actually, you can – if you watch the news. Some are in tears.) Not to mention the workers, whose benefits have ended.

        I know of at least one restaurant in Davis that appears to be permanently “gone”.

        1. David Greenwald

          Well let’s see. We still have to raise operating funds during a pandemic, can’t have in person fundraisers. Still have to make payroll each month. Had to completely shift how we did business overnight, and manage what is now 50 to 70 writers across the state, shift how we train and manage them, but yeah we can just do that from home (with kids trying to take classes and a wife trying to work from home at the same time). I’m sure Don can talk about his challenges. I don’t usually get home before 8 on a weekday.

        2. Ron Oertel

          Well actually, I’d like to hear more about that. (Aren’t you the only “paid” employee, by the way? According to your online tax records?)

          In any case, most of that can indeed be done remotely, or we wouldn’t be having this conversation. Not sure why you’re still apparently going into the “office”, or why you’d continue to occupy it (and presumably pay rent).

          You already know that some businesses and workers are impacted far more than others (by both the virus and the lockdowns). THOSE are the people who are upset.

        3. David Greenwald

          Everyone is impacted tremendously.  We were fortunate that we could turn on a dime and completely change.  It fueled growth for us.  Others can’t do that.  That’s why keeping things like PPP and enhanced benefits going would have been helpful until it is safe to re-open.  Unfortunately people can’t do the simple things needed to keep COVID numbers down.

        4. Ron Oertel

          It fueled growth for us.

          Not surprised, as more people are home (wasting time on blogs, talking about things over which they have almost no control. Except for what they personally do to protect themselves.)  😉

          I am surprised, however, that you didn’t run this story about a week ago – as things started getting worse again.

  13. Tia Will

    Ron

    I respectfully disagree that what some guy at Nugget does is insignificant. How we weather this part of the pandemic is the sum total of all our decisions and actions. People talk about the vaccine as though it were some panacea. It is not. First of all is the plan for distribution. There is a significant debate going on as we speak about prioritization. That is sure to fuel the fires of division that are already at peak levels. That is even before we address the issue of the non-vaxxers of which we have many in our community and in the country as a whole. Without massive by in, vaccination will not provide the “herd immunity” so longed for by some.

    I believe it is going to take a marked change in individual willingness to cooperate, plus mass acceptance of vaccination, plus breakthroughs in the area of long term effects, plus more effective therapeutics in order to see even an approximation to a return of normalcy. I am concerned those who are seeing the vaccine as what saves us are opting for too rosy a picture.

    1. Ron Oertel

      Most of that is beyond any individual’s control, and is almost certainly not going to be influenced to any significant degree by what’s written on this blog.

      And to paraphrase the Vegas slogan, “what goes on in Davis, doesn’t necessarily stay in Davis.”  (And, vice-versa.)

      I just don’t see the point about getting angry at what others do (or don’t do), at this point. (That comment is not not directed at you, and maybe not anyone in particular.)

      Just protect yourself, and you’ll (probably) be fine.

      By the way, has anyone noticed that the Covid death rate seems to be lower than what it once was? (Not to diminish it, as I realize that there are potential long-term impacts, as well.)

        1. Ron Oertel

          Approximately 283 thousand (out of a population of 330 million) have died, from the virus.  Almost 7 million have recovered from it in the U.S., from what I’m looking at online. (I don’t think I can post a link to it, but you can verify the accuracy of that on your own.)

          There’s no telling how many of those would have soon died, regardless of the virus.

          Point being that it does not seem to be an extremely deadly virus, e.g., compared to some others.

          Just noting facts – nothing more, nothing less.

      1. Tia Will

        Ron

        I just don’t see the point about getting angry at what others do (or don’t do), at this point. (That comment is not not directed at you, and maybe not anyone in particular.)

        I think you might feel very differently about this if you had lost someone close to you from COVID-19 because someone brought it into the hospital from a wedding or church service or protest where people were not following the recommendations. I also think you might feel differently if you were a front line health care worker whose life and health were on the line daily. And yes, maybe it is because I was on the frontline through 4 epidemics, so I knew the fear through two of them. And yes, I am very, very angry because it is not that people cannot take the simple steps to stem the spread, it is because they will not.

         

        1. Ron Oertel

          What makes you assume that no one whom I’m close to is on the “front line”?  😉

          If I lost someone as a result of someone’s drunk driving or some other crime (for example), I’d probably be laser-focused on that issue, as well. But, that doesn’t mean that it outweighs all other societal concerns, beyond the impact on myself.

          Though not a perfect analogy, maybe the general principle applies:

          Tragedy is when I cut my finger. Comedy is when you fall into an open sewer and die.

          Mel Brooks – Tragedy is when I cut my finger. Comedy is… (brainyquote.com)

          But sure, I agree that the people who don’t take simple steps are unnecessarily endangering everyone else. However, I don’t think they’re reading this blog (or taking its “advice”). For the most part, I suspect that you are “preaching to the choir”. (And that includes Keith.)

        2. Ron Oertel

          And as far as front-line workers are concerned, maybe we should all be angry regarding the systemic, long-term difficulties they’ve faced obtaining access to PPE. You’d think (at a minimum), that could have been resolved much more quickly.

  14. Bill Marshall

    Let’s see what the rest of the studio audience and the Commenter-In-Chief and his ‘cabinet’ says… but I do see the nuance, Alan (actually, good point)… but I’ll wait ’til all precincts report… and wait to see if the referenced comment “stands”… if nothing else, it is “a shot over the bow”…

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