By David M. Greenwald
A few weeks ago we were at about 14,000 new cases a day, now we’re at 31,000 this weekend—which is the highest I have seen in a while and, given that it’s a weekend, it’s a little alarming.
As a nation we are at 48 percent fully vaccinated, 58 percent with one dose. And among those over the age of 18, it rises to 59 percent and 68 percent with one dose.
There will be temptations to do something about the current surge—but maybe it’s time that we don’t.
The message at the end of the week from Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), at a White House briefing: “This is becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated.
“We are seeing outbreaks of cases in parts of the country that have low vaccination coverage because unvaccinated people are at risk. Communities that are fully vaccinated are generally faring well,” she said.
Cases are rising in all 50 states but just four states made up 40 percent of the COVID cases in the past week, with one in five cases occurring in Florida alone.
“Our biggest concern is that we are going to continue to see preventable cases, hospitalizations and, sadly, deaths among the unvaccinated,” Walensky said.
“The bottom line is we are dealing with a formidable opponent in the Delta variant,” Dr. Fauci said, adding people who are not vaccinated face “extreme vulnerability.”
“The good news is that if you are fully vaccinated, you are protected against severe Covid, hospitalization and death,” Walensky said Friday, “and are even protected against the known variants, including the Delta variant.
“If you are not vaccinated,” she added, “you remain at risk.”
For a year I have argued that people’s freedom is putting other people at risk. But increasingly, people’s choice not to vaccinate is putting themselves at risk. And I am starting to be inclined to not want to protect people from themselves.
In a way a new surge and attention on cases might be helpful in getting those who are vaccine-hesitant but not fully opposed to get it done.
The administration took to the airwaves this weekend to hammer the message home.
“And for most people who get this Delta variant, it’s going to be the most serious virus that they get in their lifetime in terms of the risk of putting them in the hospital,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb, commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration during the Trump administration, told CBS’ “Face the Nation” Sunday.
The numbers are alarming. In LA County, new cases have increased by 300 percent over July 4 (just two weeks ago).
But most of the cases, and almost all of the serious cases, are with unvaccinated people.
“Most people will either get vaccinated, or have been previously infected, or they will get this Delta variant,” Gottleib said.
For those not fully vaccinated, “quality of mask is going to make a difference with a variant that spreads more aggressively, like Delta does, where people are more contagious and exude more virus,” he said.
I get to a point of ethical dilemma here. The world has changed since last year. We have a vaccine. Those who want the vaccine can get it. The vaccine greatly reduces the risk.
I will point out once again that this entire thing was made far worse by those people unwilling to take reasonable precautions—social distancing, masks and now vaccines.
For those worried about the economic impact, we have come out of this okay with the economy—but we have also prolonged the agony because we didn’t wait it out when we had a chance to really nip this in the bud, and we are still making the same mistake.
On the other hand, no person is an island.
My kids aren’t vaccinated. My daughter won’t be 12 until the end of the year. I am hopeful we can get clearance to vaccinate them at some point.
Otherwise, I am kind of done with this. If portions of America don’t want to vaccinate, Darwin can take care of that issue. I am being glib here and I apologize for that. But at this point, I don’t know what else to say.
If I were a US health official, I would simply go door to door and try to do three things: (1) catch the one-time vaccinated up to two doses, (2) catch people still willing to vaccinate, and (3) try to get more youth vaccinated.
Unfortunately every flu season many will not vaccinate. Many will get the flu. Some will die. While I agree there is a difference with COVID, we are now kind of operating in that framework. We have a vaccine. It is readily available. Let’s reduce the gap as much as we can—but at some point people, who make their bed, have to lie in it.
The one big problem is that as long as COVID is around we can get more and more virulent variants of the virus and, at some point, our vaccines may not be able to protect us.
Until then, if you don’t want to vaccinate, fine—just stay away from my kids.
—David M. Greenwald reporting
If one doesn’t vaccinate they are their own, they made their choice. I’m vaccinated and I no longer am wearing a mask. I’m not worried about COVID.
We agree.
This statement is false. Someone who is unvaccinated becomes someone else’s potential disease vector. That’s the sole reason why we require school age vaccinations. That statement is like saying that anyone should be able to drive drunk because “they are on their own, they made their choice.” We all know that is also false.
Actually, we do not require the vaccination of school age children… we just say that they cannot attend school if they don’t have them… parents have a choice…
We could do same re: Covid vaccination… you don’t have to get them, but you cannot participate in anything where other people are involved… unless outside, double-masked, 6+ foot distancing, hand sanitizer, etc.
The logic should be:
You don’t need to get vaccinated, but you can’t demand to be allowed in to somewhere people only want vaccinated people.
This means unvaccinated people can still go to school that have no vaccination requirement. The government needs to either let some public school to have no vaccination requirement, or pay unvaccinated kids to go to non public school that have no vaccination requirement.
Bill
You’re splitting hairs over my casual language–you knew exactly what I was saying by using the phrase “school-age.” We require vaccines of school age children who attend schools. That’s 96.6% of all students. For almost all parents this isn’t a choice because they can’t home school for a variety reasons (and let’s not get into some absurd claim that they can upend their lives to create such a choice.)
Reality Check – or why I strongly disagree with almost everything you said:
1. “Our biggest concern is that we are going to continue to see preventable cases, hospitalizations and, sadly, deaths among the unvaccinated,” Walensky said.z It shouldn’t be. Our biggest concern should be the possibility of more variants. How do you think the Delta variant arose? It came from our unwillingness to implement and maintain the preventive measures to control the novel virus in the first place. If you look at our county’s website graphics you will see that every time we masked, distanced , chose outside activities and avoided crowds, the virus came under control, every time we didn’t, it surged. Around a year ago I wrote here that my nightmare scenario was the emergence of a variant that was highly transmissible, had high lethality and attacked the young, and was vaccine resistant. Delta was just the virus’ first stab at that. Do we honestly think if we just let the virus spread, even amongst just the unvaccinated, the nightmare scenario cannot occur?
2.”The good news is that if you are fully vaccinated, you are protected against severe Covid, ” Let’s look at this a little closer. The current vaccines confer a 95 percent chance that an individual who contracts the virus will not have severe COVID or die or a 5% chance you will. Viral Roulette anyone? This focus on severe disease and death only was useful in the beginning when the biggest concern was to keep people out of the hospital in order to “flatten the curve”. This was a worthy goal when hospitals are overwhelmed but which allowed the “only the vulnerable” will be affected attitude to arise. This neglected other undesirable consequences both economic and medical – shutdowns, deaths of those under 50 ( often our first responders and medical personnel, careers and lives not taken, but ruined by long COVID, and, once again, the rise of variants.
3. “Otherwise, I am kind of done with this”. This is exactly the attitude that has brought us to this place? Some people were done with it the moment Trump started downplaying it. This should never be about our personal degree of boredom, or impatience, or frustration with the acts of others. I realize you were being “glib” but glibness, IMO, has no place in the time of a pandemic with many lives, disabilities, careers still at stake.
4. “But at this point, I don’t know what else to say.” I do.
a. Stop minimizing on the one hand or on the other, throwing up our hands, shrugging our shoulders in despair, and do what we should have done from day 1. a) choose outdoor activities, avoid crowds, mask, & distance; b) avoid areas where we know the virus to be surging; and c) vaccinate all who will accept it but accept that the vaccine is one only one protective measure, not the panacea so many feel it is. IMO this is largely the fault of the CDC whose guidance implied to many that the vaccine was the great liberator and once vaccinated you could resume your normal life. Did they seriously not consider the unvaccinated would do the same?
5. “At some point people, who make their bed, have to lie in it.” The problem with this attitude is that we are all in the same bed. We will all be subject to any variant that may arise while they are cavorting “under the covers” and we are pretending we are safe.
My last and possibly most important point. We need to stop dividing the country into subsets. First it was it only affects the old or those with pre-existing conditions (as though they did not matter). Then it was let’s not address it since it seems to be affecting mostly the blue states. Let’s divide into those who are “afraid of the virus” and those who “refuse to live their lives in fear”. Now I hear on social media, let’s divide into those who are vaccinated (responsible) and those who are not and let the latter live with the consequences. As tempting as this approach might be, we are all going to live with the consequences. If that consequence is a new variant with the properties of extreme ease of transmission, an asymptomatic phase, high lethality, or increased long term effects which attacks the young (who are not immunized), and is vaccine resistant, we will all pay the price.
We as humans need to stop dividing ourselves in clans and fight this virus as one people. We had a leader who made that nearly impossible for the first year. That does not have to be our path forward. We could do what we should have done in the very beginning and treat the virus, not each other, as the enemy no matter where we fall on the political spectrum.
Bravo Dr. Will.
The concept of “freedom” as we expect it here in America is challenged by the realities of infectious disease. Especially in things where In the 1900’s t used to be the case that authorities in NYC could only get outbreaks of smallpox under control by going through entire city blocks forcing vaccinations upon everyone.
1n 1905 someone took his claim that being forced to be vaccinated violated his freedoms, to the Supreme Court… and he LOST.
And look at “Typhoid Mary “. Who was an asymptomatic carrier of typhus. She worked as a domestic servant and infected many households.. did she do anything “wrong”. No, not by any legal standard . Yet in the end she was forced to live out the rest of her life on an island offshore of Brooklyn in isolation.
Viruses don’t care about our freedoms, and as Tia said, “we are all in the same bed” – so “individual liberties” really aren’t so “individual” in this case.
The underlying principle is freedom of association. It means that a population can segregate itself into subgroups with different laws. When you break that you get authoritarianism.
If you operate a school, you can decide that your school is for vaccinated people only. What is not okay is for a government to get tax from everyone then only fund schools that require vaccination. That turns into authoritarianism even if it has majority rule. If you apply that type of thinking into every aspect, you get totalitarianism. That is what you are calling freedom.
Freedom means people are allowed to self organize into sub groups and have their own laws. The relationship among groups are not overarching laws but diplomacy.
Edgar, you are talking ‘license’ not ‘freedom’ as the word is normally used… ‘freedom’ has certain responsibilities/obligations associated with it… social responsibilities… if you think you have the ‘freedom’ to come up, yell at me, cough/sneeze in my face while infected, with no consequences, I’ll show you ‘authoritarianism’… and I won’t need the police or the judicial system… your ‘freedom’ ends @ my personal ‘bubble’, and vice versa.
Do you believe my ‘freedom’ entitles me to endanger you? I don’t… but depending how you try to assert your ‘freedom’ on me… well “paybacks are double”… that’s a ‘freedom’ I might assert, but I’d still be subject to the law… a (generally) social contract within which I can express my freedoms/liberties.
Attending school is a social contract, as well… not authoritarianism… my and my child’s ‘freedom’ from significant exposure to disease by you or your child’s being a vector is a reasonable part of the social contract…
I was going to say there is a species called Australia. However, I searched and they are now having a delta surge attributed to proximity to SE Asia. In addition, they are having anti-lockdown protests. This happened in Czechia which was doing well, but before their fall elections protests started and soon after the virus got out-of-control after a long period of very low transmission rates. Seems lockdowns just cause delay. Appears the only real solution is a very high level of vaccination.
Just realize this portion includes many liberals and lefties, and right here in Davis – every one of whom is NOT a Republican or conservative – and each has a bit of different reason for not vaccinating – some even are IMHO legit.
I agree at this point that it’s largely one’s own choice, but – we are back in the Purple Tier – according to our health officer for Yolo – except of course hardly anyone knows this because Gavin broke the meter. I just told a friend who owns a restaurant downtown and just started letting people back inside that we were back in purple. He hadn’t heard and appeared shocked. Why bother with reality, Gavvy, just break the meter instead. No vote for you! Meanwhile, it’s ‘recommended’ that we wear masks indoors, yet the reality is, as it always was, masks are for everyone else but the wearer. I go into stores now and many aren’t masking – so what is this ‘recommended’ ? The most likely people to have the virus are those not wearing masks – so what’s the point? Either make it mandatory or scrap the mask wearing. Stop dancing around the edges.
Either make it mandatory or scrap the mask wearing. Stop dancing around the edges.
I strongly disagree. Life is not binary – on or off. Sure the posted speed limit is the safest. But going 5 mph over is safer than going 50 mph over. I believe that some preventive measures are better than no preventive measures. I will take whatever people will do at this point. There is no need to surrender to illness if we cannot obliterate it. Lessening impact is still a worthy goal.
Yes, but why lessen it? Why not mandate masks again? Mandate or forget it, ‘there is no try’.
If one goes to a bar and there are 100 people you can potentially take home and sleep with and five have a venereal disease – and you take one person home and sleep with them – what are the odds of catching a venereal disease (assuming 100% tranmission rate)?
It’s WAY more than 5%, because most likely the person you took home is the person who is there every night drunk and goes home with someone every night.
Similarly, the people in stores who aren’t wearing masks are most likely to be either not vaccinated or carrying the virus – because they are ‘independent’ or ‘carefree’ sorts. So ‘there is no try’. Having a bunch of people who are way less likely to have it or spread it be the ones who aren’t wearing masks is a failed policy. And that’s what we’re doing. Right here is Putah County.
And then there’s a part of me that agrees with DG’s part – society is done with this – and I don’t think there’s any patience left – and we kind of have to accept that. So vaxx up and until the scarient comes and kills us all, it’s every person for themselves. And yes, that’s stupid. But people are stupid.
*way more
Nope. Retailers are done enforcing this. It’s on you folks now.
There’s that word again: done. The problem is, much of the country was done before they started. My point is: what is the point of ‘recommending’ mask wearing. Certainly those not wearing masks are far more likely to be carrying the virus. So a bunch of progressive Davis types wearing masks while walking there dog alone doesn’t do shˆt.
These two comments conflict with each other. In this particular geographic area, I suspect that those voluntarily wearing masks are far less likely to be carrying the virus.
That’s the real problem, and they’re not going to change now.
No they don’t
Yeah, I got that backwards in regard to what you stated. (Tried to delete it, too late.)
My apologies.
It’s definitely ironic that those who adhere to voluntary recommendations regarding masks are probably those least-likely to be spreading the disease – even without the mask.
No need to apologize. I often contradict myself. That’s what I get for being a Droll Irreverent Contrarian Know-it-all.
It’s not ironic, it’s tragic.
True, but for the most part – potentially tragic for them (those that have refused vaccines, AND do not take precautions). And truth be told, how much should anyone else be “concerned” about them, if they’re not concerned themselves?
For most others, it’s pretty much an “inconvenience”, at this point (e.g., continuing to wear masks and take precautions – even if you’re vaccinated).
For a couple of weeks, I went into a few places unmasked, got a massage, hung out in a coffee house, ate at a restaurant. And then I found out the only reason we’re not in the purple is because Gavin broke the meter. Keeping people in the dark isn’t leadership, it’s censorship. We’re in purple, people. So, like ostrich Punxsutawney Phil, I’m sticking my head in the sand for another six weeks until either this thing burns itself out or mutates and kills us all.
There is no way that guy is going to institute mask mandates at this point, unless the situation becomes much, much worse (e.g., a more dangerous mutation for which existing vaccines are completely ineffective, orders from the federal government, other states enacting mandates, etc.).
Regardless of what one thinks about it, Gavin Newsom is already facing a recall vote – primarily as a result of the earlier lockdown. Though not reported much on here, that lockdown created a lot of anger among some business owners. (Along with the “exceptions” that were allowed.)
Maybe after the election, if he has no further political aspirations.
In any case, it’s probably a good time to be in the ongoing vaccine business, especially if such a mutation occurs. Those companies must be raking in the bucks, from government.
And of course, such a mutation would also benefit the news media, I suppose.
Too many miss the point, made umpteen times, to the third power… the masks do little to protect the wearer… it protects others…
What some are saying, is that mask requirements should be mandated (a smaller group says ‘forever’… there is always flu and any new respiratory ‘bug’), even if they use all vaccinations, do the distance thingy, whether indoor or outdoor. I am not one of them. But I sorta’ understand their paranoia (yes, that’s what it is), even when not agreeing… have family member who was vaxxed Dec/Jan, follows all the protocols @ work, including mask, shield, hand sanitizer, and distancing. She tested positive for Covid while sharing a car ride with an unvaxxed person… after a week, mild symptoms, that started diminishing after ~ 24-48 hours… temp, which spiked in first 24 hours to 102, then has consistently gone down… loss of smell, returning slowly a few days after…
Only a fool, or someone not eligible due to age, or contraindicated medical reasons, should avoid/refuse vaccination… if they do, and contract, they should be very lowest priority for medical treatment (not displacing someone else), and as far as I’m concerned, no insurance coverage (public or private)… the rates to treat them might be raised on those of us following protocols… i.e., not being fools…
I note none of the vaccines have been “fully” approved by FDA… all are still ’emergency authorizations’ for use… we rolled the dice, and figured the odds were still overwhelmingly in our favor… called ‘life’…
As Janice sang: “Freedom’s just another word for nothin else to lose”
Problem is there is still much for many to lose and those who choose to not get vaccinated endanger the rest of us. They demand personal freedom while imposing on the personal freedom of others. Its the ultimate in selfishness.
Right on. Those who claim “rights” ignore that we also have “responsibilities”. Those rights are never absolute and never entitle anyone to trample on someone else’s rights in the process. There are so many examples of these types of absurd claims. This was the core of the conflict in the Civil War and why we can’t allow myths about unfettered individual rights to exist.
There are a projected 1.8 million illegal immigrants that are going to enter our country this year. It’s being found that one third of them refuse to take the vaccine. How can this be? How can we demand that citizens take the vaccine when we don’t mandate that people that are allowed to enter our country illegally have to take it?
Another thing that always gets ignored on this blog, how are we going to house all of these migrants when we can’t even house the people here now?
Gee, more accepting of the vaccine, by far, than Republicans who are conservative, and/or supporters of the former President… go figure…
The Delta is going ape