REPORT: Insurrectionist Movement Should Not Be Ignored, ‘Clearer Picture’ of Jan. 6 Attackers Needed

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By Delilah Hammons

CHICAGO, IL – Robert Pape, authoring a report in The University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST), suggested society needs to know more about the American insurrectionist movement, and warned why it can’t be ignored.

Insurrection is defined as “a usually violent attempt to take control of a government” and insurrectionist is defined as “an act or instance of revolting against civil authority or an established government” according to Merriam Webster dictionary.

“We need a clearer picture of the type of person who attacked the Capitol and what led them to action. Moreover, we need to know how many Americans today support the use of violence to preserve the Trump presidency—the cause most associated with the insurrectionist movement, and who or what most influences this group,” said Pape.

CPOST has spent the last six months updating the demographic studies every two to three weeks based on the nearly 600 Americans who were arrested for the Jan. 6 attack at the capitol for the purpose of creating a current and complete picture of the mass political movement that has violence at its core.

Pape wrote “One might have expected fires to fade, the FBI arrests to have a chilling impact on violence to support Trump, or the de-platforming of Trump himself from Facebook and Twitter to lower the temperature,” before explaining what actually happened.

A survey fielded by NORC, at the University of Chicago, discovered the following “that nine percent of Americans…believe the ‘Use of force is justified to restore Donald J. Trump to the presidency. More than a fourth of adults agree, in varying degrees, that, ‘The 2020 election was stolen, and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.’”

Pape explained that “today’s 21 million adamant supporters of insurrection also have the dangerous potential for violent mobilization.” This just adds more worry as we approach the upcoming 2022 Mid-term elections and the 2024 Presidential election.

NORC also discovered that 8.1 percent of American adults share both of these two beliefs. They also asked about membership and support for militias and extremist groups. One million know someone in one of the groups, six million show support, seven million own a gun, and lastly three million have US military service.

Pape brought up the question “What’s driving people in the insurrectionist movement?” So the surveys “looked closely at the beliefs, news sources, and party affiliations associated with the 21 million adamant insurrectionists.”

CPOST also has research showing the two central beliefs that many insurrectionists share. “63 percent believe in the Great Replacement: ‘African American people or Hispanic people in our country will eventually have more rights than whites.’ [and] 54 percent support the QAnon cabal conspiracy, that ‘A secret group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles is ruling the US government.’”

Pape said the report showed “These two fundamental beliefs do not fully overlap, suggesting complex, multiple pathways into the movement.”

Now they know that “we are not dealing with disaffected and unemployed young men, but mainly highly competent, middle-aged American professionals” according to CPOST.

With that in mind, it is becoming more clear that “we are dealing with a mass movement with violence at its core that does not fit earlier patterns of right-wing extremism,” Pape noted.

According to CPOST all of this reinforces their previous findings, stating “All this tells us is that the insurrectionist movement is more mainstream, cross-party, and more complex than many people might like to think, which does not bode well for the” upcoming elections in 2022 and 2024.

“Ironically, the solution may be more local than national. Of the ardent insurrectionists, 47 percent see the Federal Government as an ‘enemy,’ 56 percent feel the same way about state governments, but 73 percent see local governments as non-enemy actors. With the latter being the most trusted sources, mayors could have potentially out-sized influence over the future of the movement,” said Pape.

CPOST also revealed the “Concerning political affiliation, the adamant insurrectionists are not only Republicans. While 51 percent self-identify as members of the Republican Party, 34 percent see themselves as Independents and 10 percent as Democrats.”

But the study shows that “There is remarkable consistency in the responses. Specifically, of the roughly one tenth of those who think force is justified to restore Trump, 90 percent also see Biden as illegitimate, and 68 percent also think force may be needed to preserve America’s traditional way of life.”

Robert Pape concluded the summary of the CPOST report by noting, “understanding American political violence must surely be a national priority if democracy is to hold the line.”

CPOST’s research gives “a clearer picture of the type of person who attacked the Capitol and what led them to action. Moreover, we need to know how many Americans today support the use of violence to preserve the Trump presidency—the cause most associated with the insurrectionist movement, and who or what most influences this group.”

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25 thoughts on “REPORT: Insurrectionist Movement Should Not Be Ignored, ‘Clearer Picture’ of Jan. 6 Attackers Needed”

  1. David Greenwald

    63 percent believe in the Great Replacement: “African American people or Hispanic people in our country will eventually have more rights than whites.”

    1. Keith Olson

      That’s based on the 600 protesters arrested that took part in the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol.  So the most far right activists of the right wing believe that, not surprising and hardly a fair assessment of what conservatives think in general.

        1. Keith Olson

          BTW, I just checked the NORC Poll that you provided and you are wrong David, only 24% believe or somewhat agree in the Great Replacement.  The 63% number that you cite is as I stated, from the opinions of the 600 incarcerated and/or charged from the Jan. 6 riot.

           

        2. Alan Miller

           . . . you are wrong David, only 24% believe or somewhat agree in the Great Replacement.  The 63% number that you cite is as I stated . . .

          Impossible.  DG is a self-declared statistics expert.  He would not state an incorrect statement based on scientific data.

        3. Keith Olson

          Yes, I guess David didn’t look at the link he provided as proof.

          To add to that less than 10% of the 24% “strongly agree” with that statement while 14% “somewhat agree”.

           

  2. Ron Oertel

    63 percent believe in the Great Replacement: “African American people or Hispanic people in our country will eventually have more rights than whites.”

    Actually, isn’t that already factually true (in regard to college admissions, for example)? 

    Or, placement on corporate boards in California? (Though somehow, gay people were also lumped-into this favored category – even if they’re white males.)

    Or, at any company purposefully seeking to increase “diversity”?

    But more accurately, don’t they have more “rights” than Asians (first), and then whites (when it comes to college admissions)?

    So far, there has been no differentiation between black and Hispanic people, but I suspect that might be on the horizon.

    1. Keith Olson

      Yes Ron, the examples you have brought forward here show it’s clear as to why a cross section of Americans might believe that way, regardless of their politics.

      I think people are also seeing it in the way the FBI is going after the Jan. 6 Capitol rioters and not pursuing the BLM and Antifa rioters, arsonists and looters from the summer of 2020 even though they created much more damage, costs and deaths.

      1. Ron Oertel

        In regard to my examples, it depends upon whether or not affirmative action-type issues are a type of “right”.

        Regarding the example you brought up, it seems to me that it was primarily white people participating in both “types” of riots.  White people on both sides, as it were.

      2. Ron Oertel

        Though one side was clearly a little more white than the other.  Perhaps not by much, overall.

        But yeah, the insurrectionist thing is mostly being used for political purposes, to appeal to the political base (Democrats, those on the left, etc.). It is yet another reason to hate politics, as if there weren’t enough already.

        It also results in “firing up” those who actually are insurrectionists, at some point. Creates more anger and division to focus on it. (It will ultimately bubble-up again somewhere, sometime as a result.)

        No good comes out of this. Except for some pretty creative costumes, at times. (That guy received too harsh of a sentence, from what I’ve seen.) Honestly, some of those guys just walked in there, without breaking down doors, attacking people, etc. Probably didn’t think much of it, at the time.

        They are experiencing a disproportionate amount of “punishment”.

      3. Richard_McCann

        Keith O

        Do you have data on the relative damage from the different events?

        And of course the answer to ending the riots that you bemoan is for our government to invoke accountability on law enforcement to end the travesty of rule imposed on those communities. You appear to be demanding either that the low income communities become docile, that they somehow lift themselves up by their own bootstraps, or that we impose much more stringent authoritarian rule in those communities so you can continue to live comfortably in ignorance.

        1. Bill Marshall

          Do you have data on the relative damage from the different events?

          Define relative.  Define which events.  Your question raises questions.  Like some others who post here…

          You appear to lack data to refute… you BOTH apparently are asserting without ‘backup’.  So, you ask a P-A question.

          As to the rest of your 11:42 post, you appear to go on a tirade, fitting your apparent views…

          Note, I asked no questions.  Criminal behavior is criminal behavior… rioting/private/property damage is unacceptable behavior… how it is sanctioned is a matter of degree… attacking the US Capitol, to ostensibly overturn a presidential election, in my mind, is far different from a “smash and grab”… yet, they are both wrong.  Period.  Exclamation point.

          All criminal activity should be sanctioned, with the goal of preventing it.  “Justifying” it in one event or another, is BS.  Criminal activity happened at BLM/other protests/rallies, and our nation’s Capitol… I believe the greater threat to society occurred in the latter… but neither sets of ‘bad behavior’ is justified.

          Pretty sure I’ve offended everyone contributing on this topic.  OK by me.

        2. Ron Oertel

          Pretty sure I’ve offended everyone contributing on this topic.

          You would be wrong, in that conclusion.  Ironically, you are usually wrong when you make this type of comment.

          It’s the “other times” that you might want to think about.  Or, not.  🙂

          Ultimately, “views” never offend anyone, anyway. It’s how they’re delivered that tends to offend. (No, not a comment directed at you. Might even be directed at me, at times. Or anyone else commenting on a political blog.)

          Keep in mind that Alan M. and Keith E. apparently don’t support Measure J, but David does. And yet, David gets “called out” more often (partly because he’s the one running this dog-and-pony show, but perhaps also for other reasons).

        3. Ron Oertel

          The more important question being, what (exactly) is a “dog-and-pony show”? And, why do I refer to it, without knowing what it is?

          I think I recall the saying from David Letterman, in regard to his own show.

        4. Alan Miller

          Petty sure I’ve offended everyone contributing on this topic.

          Everyone but me.

          Ironically, you are usually wrong when you make this type of comment.

          I believe you have offended the offender.

          Keep in mind that Alan M. and Keith E. apparently don’t support Measure J, but David does. And yet, David gets “called out” more often

          Do you have data on the relative level of frequency of “being called” out that occurs with the different persons cited?

  3. Jim Frame

    I think people are also seeing it in the way the FBI is going after the Jan. 6 Capitol rioters and not pursuing the BLM and Antifa rioters, arsonists and looters from the summer of 2020 even though they created much more damage, costs and deaths.

    How many of those riots involved federal jurisdiction?

  4. Alan Miller

    63 percent believe in the Great Replacement: “African American people or Hispanic people in our country will eventually have more rights than whites.”

    Say what?  The Great Replacement is the idea that between immigration and birth rates that non-white races grow in population to the point that ‘white’ people no longer are in control, is it not?  Personally not something I have the slightest fear of.  And isn’t it already the case or pretty near anyway in the US?

    As for “African American people or Hispanic people in our country will eventually have more rights than whites” — isn’t that the case with some issues?  I mean from the point of view of those being asked, try creating a safe space for white people on the UC Davis campus for example.  Or affirmative action of any kind, whether by name or by practice.  That is essentially ‘more rights’ and could be all they mean.  That doesn’t mean of course because a group has ‘more rights’ (whatever that actually means to anyone answering the question) that as a group they have more resources per capita.  And whether a disadvantaged group should have ‘more rights’ or not doesn’t factor in here.

    So why are you completely misdefining the meaning of Great Replacement, and therefore making it look like people answering the question that way are xealot xenophobics?

    Actually it was a poll done of 1000 people…

    1000 insurrectionists or 1000 randos?  Wasn’t clear in my glance or the link.

    What was most terrifying to me is that ‘people’ get their news split almost equally between Fox News and CNN.  That should terrify us all.

    1. Ron Oertel

      The Great Replacement is the idea that between immigration and birth rates that non-white races grow in population to the point that ‘white’ people no longer are in control, is it not?  Personally not something I have the slightest fear of.

      Nor do I.

      Do those making that claim believe that white people (or any other skin color) are a harmonious “club”?

      One look at the comment section in the Vanguard should help convince otherwise. Experiencing life does the trick, as well.

      Or affirmative action of any kind, whether by name or by practice. That is essentially ‘more rights’ and could be all they mean.

      Eggzactly, as one commenter used to say.

    2. Ron Oertel

      That doesn’t mean of course because a group has ‘more rights’ (whatever that actually means to anyone answering the question) that as a group they have more resources per capita.

      That, too.

      At this point, I’m starting to become less-clear as to the definition of “rights”. Nor can I tell you what one “wrong” and one “right” add up to. (Zero, I guess.)

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